Strategy Bitcoin sale triggers Polymarket lawsuit and price swing

Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for roughly $2.5 million between May 26‑31, marking its first treasury sale since 2022 and prompting a New York lawsuit over a Polymarket prediction‑market resolution [1]. The sale sent Bitcoin down to $61,300 before a rapid rebound to $63,500, underscoring lingering bullish positioning despite the shock.

Sale fallout and market reaction

The unexpected off‑load by Michael Saylor’s Strategy triggered a brief sell‑off, pushing Bitcoin below the $62,300 support zone. Funding rates on perpetual futures jumped to an annualized 9 % on Monday, indicating balanced long‑short leverage after the dip [2]. Options markets showed modest stress, with the put‑call premium ratio at 1.15, still within a neutral range [2]. The price quickly recovered, climbing to $63,500, though the rally fell short of a sustained bullish breakout.

Polymarket dispute and broader implications

Traders who held “Yes” shares on a Polymarket market asking whether Strategy would sell any Bitcoin by May 31 filed a lawsuit alleging the platform altered the market’s terms after the sale was disclosed [1]. Polymarket resolved the market as “No” via a UMA vote, with 98.6 % of voting power supporting that outcome, a move the plaintiffs claim breaches the platform’s pre‑defined rules. The suit seeks damages of at least $797,198 in denied redemption value or $596,281 in acquisition‑cost restitution [1].

On‑chain and token‑economics context

On‑chain data point to reduced selling pressure: long‑term holder transfers to exchanges fell to 4,130 BTC per day, down from 8,040 BTC a week earlier [2]. Strategy’s broader Bitcoin holdings still carry $8 billion in unrealized losses, but the company retains enough cash to cover 17 months of dividends, reducing immediate pressure to liquidate more BTC [2]. The firm’s preferred perpetual equity, STRC US, remains limited to a fixed $100 issuance price, constraining future dividend funding [2].

What to watch

• Bitcoin price at the $60,000 support level and the $65,000 resistance zone.
• Any further Polymarket rulings or appeals that could affect prediction‑market credibility.
• Strategy’s next Bitcoin disposition, especially the 3,588 BTC sale announced on July 6 for $216 million [1].

The episode illustrates how a single corporate treasury move can ripple through both spot prices and the nascent prediction‑market ecosystem, leaving open whether regulatory scrutiny will tighten around platforms like Polymarket or whether Bitcoin’s on‑chain fundamentals will sustain the rebound.