XRP falls to $1.38 as Ripple’s 2025 impact report shows mixed outlook

XRP is now priced at $1.38, a 60% drop from its July 2025 high of $3.65, despite Ripple’s recent legal win, new ETF approvals and a surge in on‑chain activity [1].

Price pressure and the failed breakout

The token has failed to stay above $1.50 on four separate attempts since falling below that mark earlier this year, each rejection followed by a sharp pullback and a textbook double‑top at $1.51 [1]. Open interest in XRP derivatives rose from $798 million to $940 million as $142 million of fresh long positions entered the market, yet bearish RSI divergence and a 41% drop in long‑holder buying signaled weakening momentum [1]. Standard Chartered cut its 2026 price target from $8 to $2.80, citing broader macro headwinds rather than any fundamental change in Ripple’s outlook [1].

Growing infrastructure versus stagnant usage

On‑chain volume tells a different story. Daily transactions on the XRP Ledger hit 3 million on 15 March 2026—a threefold increase over mid‑2025 levels—driven by automated market‑maker pools, tokenized assets and RLUSD settlement flows [1]. Real‑world asset tokenization on the ledger now exceeds $474 million, with total represented value approaching $1.5 billion [1]. Institutional interest is evident: JPMorgan forecasts $4‑$8.4 billion of XRP ETF inflows in the first year, and CME Group launched regulated XRP futures in May 2025 [1]. Despite these developments, transaction volume has remained relatively static, suggesting businesses prefer stablecoins over XRP’s volatile token for cross‑border bridges [1].

Tokenomics and supply concerns

Ripple controls roughly 41.6 billion of the 100 billion XRP supply, releasing tokens gradually from escrow [1]. This centralized supply structure draws criticism and gives Ripple the ability to influence market liquidity directly. Monthly token releases continue to add supply pressure, a factor that institutional investors monitor closely [1].

What to watch

• $1.50 resistance – a clean close above could signal a renewed upside.
• Monthly escrow releases – track the volume of newly unlocked XRP each month.
• ETF and futures milestones – JPMorgan’s ETF inflow estimates and CME futures trading volumes could reshape demand.

XRP’s price lagging behind its expanding payment infrastructure highlights a disconnect between on‑chain growth and market sentiment. Whether the token can translate Ripple’s institutional partnerships into sustained buying pressure remains the key question for its long‑term trajectory.