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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's May 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations indicates that American households are experiencing increased financial pessimism. Respondents reported growing concerns regarding job security, credit access, and the rising cost of living, with the share of households describing their current financial condition as worse than a year ago reaching its highest level since January 2023. Expectations for home price growth rose to 3.5%, the highest level since July 2022, while anticipated inflation for food and rent also increased.
Labor market sentiment has weakened, as the perceived probability of losing a job climbed to 15.1% and the likelihood of finding new employment fell to its lowest point since December 2025. Despite these broader economic concerns, consumers expressed a slight increase in optimism regarding U.S. stock market performance over the next year. Additionally, the survey noted a rise in the expected probability of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs, which reached its highest level since February 2023.
The perceived probability of losing a job rose to 15.1%, while confidence in finding new employment dropped to 43.7%.
Home price growth expectations reached 3.5%, marking the highest level recorded since July 2022.
The likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment within the next three months increased to 12.6%.
Expected inflation for food prices rose to 5.8%, and rent inflation expectations increased to 7.4%.
The share of households reporting that their financial situation is worse than a year ago reached its highest point since January 2023.
Rising living costs, particularly regarding food and rent, continue to dominate economic concerns for American households.
Consumers are increasingly concerned about job security, with the perceived probability of job loss rising and confidence in finding new employment falling.
Yes, the perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher one year from now increased slightly to 38.0%.
The increased likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment is driven largely by lower-income households and those with lower educational attainment.
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