# Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Ratio Shows 95% Historical Correlation

**Published:** 2026-08-20T18:30:49.142Z  
**Topic:** Stock To Flow  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/fed3db96-bee0-48cf-95ef-9787d2ded7fa

Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts price based on scarcity, has historically shown a 95% correlation with BTC's market price movements.

Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, a model that assesses scarcity by comparing the current circulating supply to new production, has historically demonstrated a 95% correlation with Bitcoin's price movements [5]. This model, initially proposed by analyst PlanB, suggests that Bitcoin's value is driven by its increasing scarcity, similar to precious metals like gold and silver [2, 5].

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Current S/F Ratio | 121.5 [5] |
| Last Traded Price | $63,540.39 [5] |
| Predicted Price (S2F Model) | $637,694.446 [5] |
| Days to Next Halving | 853 [5] |

## Understanding the Stock-to-Flow Model

The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio is calculated as the ratio of the current stock of a commodity (Bitcoin's circulating supply) to the flow of new production (newly mined bitcoins) [2, 4]. A higher S2F ratio indicates reduced annual inflation for an asset, making it more scarce and, by extension, more valuable [4]. For Bitcoin, this scarcity is fundamentally linked to its "halving" events, which occur approximately every four years or every 210,000 blocks [4]. During a halving, the block reward given to miners for securing the network is cut by 50% [4]. For example, the block reward decreased from 50 BTC in 2009 to 12.5 BTC in 2019, with the next halving expected to reduce it to 6.25 BTC [4].

The S2F model uses the formula: Price = 0.18 × (S/F)^3.3 [5]. This formula has historically shown a 95% fit quality with Bitcoin's last traded price movements over 215 monthly intervals, incorporating 34 total halving events [5]. The model predicts a price of $637,694.446 based on a current S/F ratio of 121.5, compared to a last traded price of $63,540.39 [5].

## Bitcoin's Scarcity and Future Halvings

Bitcoin's protocol is designed to increase its stock-to-flow ratio significantly over time, a characteristic that proponents argue differentiates it from other assets [4]. The model tracks Bitcoin price data alongside S2F predictions and marks all halving events, including those in 2012, 2016, 2020, and the upcoming 2024 event [5]. Forecasts also include estimated S/F ratios after the 2020 and 2024 halvings [4].

The next halving event is 853 days away, with subsequent halvings scheduled for December 2028, December 2032, and beyond [5]. This programmed reduction in new supply is central to the S2F model's premise that Bitcoin's scarcity will continue to drive its valuation [4, 5].

## What to watch

*   **Next Halving Event:** Monitor the impact of the next Bitcoin halving, expected in approximately 853 days, on the S2F ratio and Bitcoin's price dynamics [5].
*   **Model Correlation:** Observe if Bitcoin's price continues to track the S2F model's predictions, particularly as the S/F ratio increases post-halving [5].
*   **Market Adoption:** Track the development of infrastructure, such as custodial services, ETFs, and futures, which could influence institutional engagement and capital flow into the crypto asset market [4].

The S2F model posits that Bitcoin's fixed and non-inflationary monetary policy is crucial for its ability to accrue value and potentially disrupt traditional assets like gold [4]. The ongoing increase in Bitcoin's scarcity, driven by its halving schedule, remains a key factor for observers of its long-term valuation [4, 5].

## Sources
1. Coinglass — [Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model | CoinGlass](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/S2F)
2. Studio — [BTC Stock-to-Flow Ratio Chart - Glassnode](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/indicators.StockToFlowRatio?a=BTC)
3. Tradingview — [BTC_STOCKTOFLOWRATIO Charts and Quotes — TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC_STOCKTOFLOWRATIO/)
4. In — [Blockchain Fundamentals - Bitcoin's Stock to Flow Ratio — Indicator...](https://in.tradingview.com/script/2Nrq5dBV-Blockchain-Fundamentals-Bitcoin-s-Stock-to-Flow-Ratio/)
5. Charts — [Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model - Scarcity-Based Valuation](https://charts.bitcoin.com/s2f.html)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Ratio Shows 95% Historical Correlation", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/fed3db96-bee0-48cf-95ef-9787d2ded7fa