# GBP/USD Holds Below 1.3500 Ahead of UK Q2 GDP Report

**Published:** 2026-08-13T13:11:59.135Z  
**Topic:** Neutrl USD  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/e0a4b1be-836e-43a9-9ee8-dc644f4e24ff

GBP/USD stalls under 1.3500 as US CPI and UK Q2 GDP loom, with USD strength from oil‑driven inflation fears limiting pound upside.

The pound stayed under the 1.3500 psychological barrier, trading around that level on Thursday, as traders awaited the UK Q2 GDP release while a firmer USD, backed by oil‑linked inflation concerns, kept upside pressure at bay【2】.  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | ~1.3500 |
| 24h % move | Near‑flat, slight dip below 1.3500 |
| Key level | 1.3500 psychological mark; support at 1.3408 (100‑period SMA) |
| Catalyst | US CPI data (Wed) and UK Q2 GDP (Thu) driving USD strength |

## Market context and price action  
The GBP/USD pair has been oscillating in a narrow range since breaking above 1.3500 on July 16, but the breakout failed to generate sustained buying, leaving the pair hovering just below the mark. Technical analysis points to immediate support at the 100‑period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.3408; a breach would expose deeper retracements, while the July monthly swing high near 1.3555‑1.3560 remains the next upside target【1】. Momentum indicators are mixed: the RSI sits near the neutral 50 line and the MACD has slipped slightly below zero, suggesting a continuation of the current consolidative pattern rather than a decisive directional move【2】.

## Drivers behind the stall  
Two macro events dominate the near‑term outlook. First, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Wednesday is expected to keep inflation‑related Fed rate‑hike bets alive, reinforcing the safe‑haven appeal of the USD and capping pound gains【1】. Second, the preliminary UK Q2 GDP figure, due Thursday, is projected at a 0.4% quarterly rise, down from a 0.6% increase in the previous period, a reading that could sway sentiment on the pound depending on whether it meets or misses consensus【1】【2】. Geopolitical tension from the US‑Iran standoff and ongoing oil price volatility further underpin the USD’s strength, limiting the GBP’s upside potential【1】.

## Technical outlook  
Above the 100‑period SMA, the pound retains a mildly bullish bias, but the lack of momentum in the RSI and MACD suggests that any breakout above 1.3500 would need fresh catalyst support. A slip below the pivot around 1.3491 could trigger technical selling, potentially pushing the pair toward the 1.3415 level, another SMA‑based support zone【2】. Conversely, a sustained defence of the 1.3500 zone would keep the bullish bias intact and set the stage for a test of the July swing high.

## What to watch  
- **US CPI release (Wed)** – stronger‑than‑expected inflation could tighten Fed expectations and bolster the USD.  
- **UK Q2 GDP preliminary (Thu)** – a reading below the 0.4% consensus may weaken the pound further; a surprise upside could revive bullish momentum.  
- **Key technical levels** – watch 1.3491 (pivot), 1.3415 (support), and 1.3555‑1.3560 (resistance) for breakouts or holds.  

The pound’s ability to break above 1.3500 hinges on whether upcoming macro data can offset the USD’s inflation‑driven momentum, leaving the near‑term trajectory tightly linked to these releases.

## Sources
1. Fxstreet — [British Pound consolidates near 1.3500 vs USD ahead US CPI, UK...](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-consolidates-around-13500-vs-usd-looks-to-us-cpi-uk-gdp-for-fresh-impetus-202608110703)
2. FXStreet — [GBP/USD Price Forecast: Trades below 1.3500 on firmer USD, ahead of UK GDP](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-trades-below-13500-on-firmer-usd-ahead-of-uk-gdp-202608130402)
3. FXStreet — [GBP/USD Price Forecast: Trades around 1.3450; bulls retain control above 100-hour SMA](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-trades-around-13450-bulls-retain-control-above-100-hour-sma-202608050904)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "GBP/USD Holds Below 1.3500 Ahead of UK Q2 GDP Report", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/e0a4b1be-836e-43a9-9ee8-dc644f4e24ff