# OpenAI delays IPO to 2027, Kalshi sees 59% chance by March 2027

**Published:** 2026-06-28T14:54:11.672Z  
**Topic:** OpenAI  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/e056626e-fb73-4e73-827e-6b7dcd5b270e

OpenAI pushes its IPO back to 2027; Kalshi traders give a 59% probability of an announcement by March 1 2027 amid $1 trillion valuation aims and tech‑stock

OpenAI has moved its anticipated initial public offering from 2026 to 2027, and prediction‑market traders now assign a 59% chance that the company will formally announce the IPO by March 1 2027—a shift that reflects heightened market uncertainty and the firm’s insistence on a $1 trillion valuation target【2】.  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Company | OpenAI |
| Target valuation | $1 trillion (CEO Altman’s floor) |
| New IPO window | 2027 (delay from 2026) |
| Kalshi probability (by Mar 1 2027) | 59% |
| 2023 revenue | $13 billion (still loss‑making) |

## Timing and market backdrop  
OpenAI filed a confidential S‑1 on June 8, but the filing notes that the timing “remains flexible,” allowing the firm to wait for more stable market conditions【1】. The delay follows a New York Times report linking the move to recent turbulence in tech stocks and the weak aftermarket performance of SpaceX, whose shares fell about 24% after an initial 19% premium post‑IPO【1】【2】. Traders on Kalshi consider an IPO “confirmed” only when the SEC declares the S‑1 effective, a price is set, or a ticker is assigned, and they now see a 73% chance of an announcement by June 2027, down from earlier expectations of a 2026 debut【2】.

## Valuation pressure and competitor moves  
OpenAI’s last private‑market valuation was $852 billion after a $122 billion funding round earlier this year, yet CEO Sam Altman is reportedly unwilling to accept a public market price below $1 trillion【1】【3】. Advisors warn that current market sentiment may force a lower valuation, but Altman has labeled any reduction as a “non‑starter.” The firm also posted $13 billion in revenue last year, but continues to incur heavy losses, underscoring the challenge of justifying a trillion‑dollar float【3】. Meanwhile, rival Anthropic has quietly filed for its own IPO, with Kalshi traders assigning a 70% chance of an announcement by December, adding competitive pressure to the AI‑stock landscape【2】.

## What to watch  
- Official IPO announcement date (probability peaks at March 1 2027).  
- Anthropic’s IPO timeline, which could influence investor appetite for AI mega‑caps.  
- Broader tech‑stock volatility, especially after high‑profile listings like SpaceX, which may affect pricing expectations for OpenAI.  

The delay highlights the tension between lofty valuation ambitions and a market that is still gauging appetite for mega‑cap AI offerings. Whether OpenAI can secure a trillion‑dollar float when it finally goes public remains an open question that will shape the next wave of AI‑sector financing.

## Sources
1. Outlookmoney — [OpenAI IPO Delayed to 2027: Sam Altman Holds Firm on $1 Trillion Valuation Amid Tech Market Volatility Concerns - Outlook Money](https://www.outlookmoney.com/invest/openai-ipo-ai-behemoth-likely-to-delay-public-issue-what-we-know-so-far)
2. CNBC — [OpenAI is reportedly delaying its IPO. Here's when Kalshi traders think it will announce](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/26/openai-ipo-timeline-delayed-kalshi-predictions.html)
3. Indiaipo — [OpenAI IPO reportedly delayed to 2027: $1 trillion float faces headwinds | India IPO](https://www.indiaipo.in/news/detail/openai-ipo-reportedly-delayed-to-2027-1-trillion-float-faces-headwinds)
4. Blog — [OpenAI IPO schedule delay, Karshi predictions - Blog.nidoproject.com](https://blog.nidoproject.com/openai-ipo-schedule-delay-karshi-predictions/)
5. News — [OpenAI IPO timeline delayed, Kalshi predictions - 24x7Report](https://news.24x7report.com/openai-ipo-timeline-delayed-kalshi-predictions/)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "OpenAI delays IPO to 2027, Kalshi sees 59% chance by March 2027", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/e056626e-fb73-4e73-827e-6b7dcd5b270e