# Coinbase stock could rise 65% as crypto recovery gains momentum

**Published:** 2026-06-27T15:34:42.294Z  
**Topic:** Coinbase  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/dff06e30-fea5-4e24-8539-a6718819fa14

Coinbase shares at $164.84, down 27% YTD, face a 65% upside target of $271.94 amid recovering crypto volumes and growing subscription revenue.

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) closed at $164.84 on June 24, 2026, and 24/7 Wall St. projects a price of $271.94 — a 64.97% upside — if crypto trading volumes and subscription revenue stay on their recovery path【3】.  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $164.84 |
| 24‑hour change | –3.34% (week) |
| YTD performance | –27.11% |
| Catalyst | Recovery in crypto volumes, subscription revenue growth, stable‑coin earnings |

## What drove the move  
The latest price reflects a 27.11% drop year‑to‑date, far lagging the broader market, as Bitcoin fell 27.05% YTD and Ethereum 41.86%【3】. Coinbase’s Q1 2026 results showed revenue of $1.41 billion, a 30.54% YoY decline, and a GAAP loss of $1.49 per share, largely due to $482.4 million in crypto asset write‑downs【3】. Management responded with a 14% headcount cut aimed at $500 million in annual savings, and the company’s “Everything Exchange” strategy is now generating new revenue streams: subscription and services made up 44% of net revenue, stable‑coin revenue hit $305 million, prediction‑market volume crossed $100 million annualized, and retail derivatives are on track for $250 million【3】.

## Valuation and upside potential  
Analysts price Coinbase at a forward P/E of 77, implying limited room for further multiple expansion if crypto volumes stay weak【3】. The bullish target of $271.94 assumes forward earnings of $3.99 per share and a forward P/E of roughly 68, representing a 65% upside from the current level【3】. Consensus estimates are lower at $229.74, but the model’s confidence is high (90%) because subscription revenue now cushions trading swings better than in the 2022 cycle【3】. The stock’s beta of 3.32 means each 1% move in Bitcoin translates to about a 3.3% move in COIN, underscoring the importance of crypto market health【3】.

## Risks and liquidity cushion  
Insider selling across 90 recent transactions and a forward P/E of 77 leave little margin for further volume erosion【3】. However, Coinbase holds $10.21 billion in cash and $2.10 billion in authorized buybacks, providing a buffer against downside risk【3】. The primary downside scenario hinges on another 20%+ drop in total crypto market cap, which would compress transaction revenue and pressure the stock further.

## What to watch  
- Bitcoin price stability above $60,000, which the model cites as a trigger for transaction‑revenue recovery.  
- Quarterly transaction‑revenue guidance (e.g., the $215 million target for Q2).  
- Progress on the “Everything Exchange” rollout, especially growth in stable‑coin and prediction‑market revenue.

If crypto volumes rebound and Coinbase’s subscription model scales as projected, the stock could capture a sizable portion of the upside implied by the 65% target. Conversely, another crypto market contraction would likely erode the earnings recovery and keep the share price near its recent lows.

## Sources
1. 24/7 Wall St — [Prediction: Coinbase Stock Will Trade at This Price at The End of The Year](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/06/05/prediction-coinbase-stock-will-trade-at-this-price-at-the-end-of-the-year/)
2. Marketbeat — [COIN News Today | Why did Coinbase Global stock go up today?](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/COIN/news/)
3. 247wallst — [Coinbase Could Jump 65% as Crypto Recovery Unfolds](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/06/24/coinbase-could-jump-65-as-crypto-recovery-unfolds/)
4. Investopedia — [investopedia.com/coinbase-could-leave-us-7482077](https://www.investopedia.com/coinbase-could-leave-us-7482077)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Coinbase stock could rise 65% as crypto recovery gains momentum", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/dff06e30-fea5-4e24-8539-a6718819fa14