# Bitcoin S2F model projects $500,000 price by 2027 after 2024 halving

**Published:** 2026-08-01T08:08:20.666Z  
**Topic:** Stock To Flow  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/c9e6bd76-ba19-4bcc-a0dd-31d185d4512c

Bitcoin S2F model predicts an average $500,000 price during the 2024‑2028 halving cycle, with current price near $70,000 and 43% of addresses in loss.

Bitcoin’s price could average $500,000 between 2024 and 2028, according to PlanB’s Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) model, a forecast that hinges on the upcoming 2024 halving and Bitcoin’s current support around $70,000 [2].  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Target price | $500,000 (average 2024‑2028) |
| Current price | ~ $70,000 (trading above 200‑week MA) |
| 24h move | Swinged above $73,000, then back to mid‑$60k range |
| Catalyst | 2024 block‑reward halving and S2F model trajectory |

## Model mechanics and recent price action  
The S2F framework links Bitcoin’s scarcity—measured by the ratio of existing supply to newly minted coins—to price, asserting that each halving (when block rewards are cut in half) should lift price over the following years. PlanB’s latest projection places the S2F path at roughly $500,000 by 2027, implying Bitcoin would spend a substantial portion of the 2024‑2028 cycle above that level [2]. The model’s credibility is under debate, but the price chart still respects two long‑watched structural supports: the realized cost price and the 200‑week moving average, both of which Bitcoin is currently hovering just above [2].

## Market context and on‑chain signals  
Bitcoin’s recent volatility—peaking above $73,000 on March 5 before retreating to the mid‑$60,000s and rebounding above $70,000—has left about 43% of addresses holding at a loss, a figure dominated by short‑term holders and treasury firms [2]. Institutional interest continues to rise, but the S2F forecast assumes that demand will keep outpacing the diminishing supply post‑halving. Critics note that the model’s past accuracy is mixed, and a sustained breach of the $70,000 level would be needed to reinforce confidence in the $500,000 outlook.

## Comparative price history  
Previous halving cycles saw Bitcoin climb from roughly $1,000 after the 2012 halving to near $20,000 after the 2016 event, and from $9,000 in 2016 to a peak of $69,000 in 2021. The current projection extrapolates a similar post‑halving surge, but the price would need to sustain levels well above $70,000 for the average to approach $500,000 [2].

## What to watch  
- **Price thresholds:** $75,000 resistance and $65,000 support (near the 200‑week MA).  
- **Halving date:** Scheduled for 2024; any deviation in block‑reward timing could affect the S2F trajectory.  
- **On‑chain loss ratio:** Changes in the proportion of addresses in loss (currently ~43%) may signal shifting holder sentiment.  

If Bitcoin can maintain momentum above its key technical supports, the S2F model’s $500,000 target could become a plausible long‑term benchmark. However, the model’s assumptions remain contested, and the next halving will be the decisive test of whether scarcity‑driven price dynamics can deliver the projected six‑figure average.

## Sources
1. Coin-informer — [Bitcoin S2F Model Says BTC Price Is Headed To $500,000, Here ...](https://www.coin-informer.com/news/bitcoin-s2f-model-says-btc-price-is-headed-to-500000-heres-w-2026-03-11/)
2. Longbridge — [Bitcoin S2F Model Says BTC Price Is Headed To $500,000, Here ...](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278596000)
3. Newsbtc — [Bitcoin S2F Model Says BTC Price Is Headed To $500,000...](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-s2f-model-btc-500000/)
4. Tradingview — [Bitcoin S2F Model Says BTC Price Is Headed To $500,000...](https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:8081cea1a094b:0-bitcoin-s2f-model-says-btc-price-is-headed-to-500-000-here-s-when/)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Bitcoin S2F model projects $500,000 price by 2027 after 2024 halving", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/c9e6bd76-ba19-4bcc-a0dd-31d185d4512c