# RBA Governor Bullock says June unemployment rise won’t change rate

**Published:** 2026-07-28T08:30:41.470Z  
**Topic:** Inflation  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/ababf266-5b63-4e85-a7b5-39cf100cb7d9

RBA governor Michele Bullock says the June unemployment jump to 4.3% was forecasted and won’t alter the July rate‑hold, while inflation trimmed‑mean fell below

Australia’s central bank kept the cash rate unchanged in July despite unemployment rising to 4.3% in the June quarter, a level that matched the RBA’s May forecast and did not prompt a policy shift [1].

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Unemployment rate (June Q) | 4.3 % (up from 4.1 %) |
| Trimmed‑mean inflation (Mar Q) | 2.9 % (first sub‑3 % since 2021) |
| Market reaction (AUD/USD) | AUD rose sharply after comments |
| Rate outlook | No cuts expected; possible hike in February meeting [2] |

## Labour market data versus policy stance  
The June quarterly unemployment rate climbed to 4.3 %, the highest in three years but still within the range the RBA projected in its May outlook [1]. Bullock noted that other labour indicators, such as the vacancy rate, have remained stable, and leading indicators do not point to a sustained rise in joblessness [1]. Consequently, she dismissed the notion that the July board decision would have differed had the data been available earlier, emphasizing that “the monthly numbers pop up and down” [1].

## Inflation trends and future moves  
Underlying inflation, measured by the year‑ended trimmed‑mean, fell to 2.9 % in the March quarter, breaking the 3 % threshold for the first time since 2021 [1]. The RBA expects a modest further decline but wants clearer evidence before cutting rates, noting that the volatile monthly CPI indicator suggests the slowdown may be less pronounced than earlier forecasts [1]. In a separate briefing, Bullock indicated that the board sees no immediate need for rate cuts and is open to tightening if inflation proves persistent, with the February meeting set to be the next decision point [2].

## Market response and forward guidance  
Following Bullock’s comments, the Australian dollar appreciated sharply against the U.S. dollar [2]. Analysts interpret the reaction as a bet that the RBA may shift from an extended pause to a potential hike in the February meeting, a scenario currently priced at roughly 45 % probability for a March hike [2].

## What to watch  
- February RBA board meeting: any shift in tone on inflation persistence could signal a rate hike.  
- June‑quarter labour market releases: vacancy rate and other leading indicators for signs of further unemployment pressure.  
- Quarterly inflation data (trimmed‑mean and monthly CPI): deviations from the expected decline may influence the board’s stance.

Bullock’s remarks underscore that the RBA’s dual mandate—price stability and full employment—remains balanced; the latest labour data fit the bank’s forecasts, while the inflation trajectory will dictate whether tightening resumes or the pause extends. The key question now is whether the upcoming data will compel the board to move beyond a pause and raise rates.

## Sources
1. Abc — [RBA governor Michele Bullock says unemployment jump would not...](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-24/michele-bullock-says-rise-in-unemployment-not-a-concern/105567372)
2. Investinglive — [RBA's Bullock: Discussed circumstances in which we might have to...](https://investinglive.com/centralbank/rbas-bullock-did-not-explicitly-consider-case-for-a-rate-hike-this-meeting-20251209/)
3. Businesstimes — [RBA's Bullock set for first rate hike as inflation lingers - The Business.....](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/rbas-bullock-set-first-rate-hike-inflation-lingers)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "RBA Governor Bullock says June unemployment rise won’t change rate", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/ababf266-5b63-4e85-a7b5-39cf100cb7d9