# Gold hits $4,170 as Fed rate‑hike odds fall

**Published:** 2026-07-05T17:18:09.290Z  
**Topic:** Gold  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/a8dba038-d2f3-4242-91e6-d23c5bc3e176

Gold climbs to $4,170/oz, its highest since June 23, after US jobs data cuts September Fed hike odds to 50%; see market impact and next cues.

Gold rose to $4,170 per ounce on Friday, the highest level since June 23, as weaker US non‑farm payrolls slashed the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 50% [1].

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $4,170/oz |
| Weekly gain | +2% |
| Fed‑hike odds | 50% (down from 66%) |
| Dollar move | Largest weekly decline since April |

## Data shock and market reaction  
The June non‑farm payroll report added only 57,000 jobs, far below the 110,000 consensus and the prior month’s revised 129,000 figure [3]. That surprise pushed the CME FedWatch tool’s implied probability of a September rate increase from 66% to 50% [1]. Lower rate‑hike expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets such as gold, supporting the metal’s rally. At the same time, the US dollar weakened toward a two‑week low, further buoying gold, which is priced in dollars [3].

## Broader demand backdrop  
Central banks added a net 41 metric tons of gold to reserves in May, according to World Gold Council data, reinforcing the upward pressure on prices [1]. While Indian demand softened as prices rose, Chinese buying interest showed a modest uptick, indicating that the price move is being underpinned by both macro‑policy shifts and traditional safe‑haven buying [1].

## Technical picture  
Gold’s price broke above the 100‑period simple moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its April‑June decline, a bullish signal noted by technical analysts [3]. Momentum indicators remain strong, though the RSI is edging toward overbought territory, suggesting that further upside may encounter resistance near $4,301 [3].

## What to watch  
- US CPI release on July 10, which could reshape Fed rate expectations.  
- The Fed’s policy meeting on July 31, where any guidance on future hikes will likely move the dollar and gold.  
- The 38.2% Fibonacci level at $4,301.41, a near‑term resistance point for the metal.

Gold’s climb to $4,170 underscores how quickly labour‑market surprises can shift expectations for monetary tightening, reviving the metal’s safe‑haven appeal. The next round of US inflation data and the Fed’s July meeting will determine whether the rally can sustain its momentum.

## Sources
1. Tradingeconomics — [Gold - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold)
2. Kitco — [Live Gold Prices | Gold News And Analysis | Mining News | KITCO](https://www.kitco.com/)
3. Fxstreet — [Gold Forecast, News and Analysis (XAU/USD) - FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/commodities/metals/gold)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Gold hits $4,170 as Fed rate‑hike odds fall", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/a8dba038-d2f3-4242-91e6-d23c5bc3e176