# Ethereum underwater supply hits post‑FTX capitulation levels

**Published:** 2026-06-18T10:52:12.242Z  
**Topic:** Ethereum  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/a88cf947-e3f5-4ef4-9b5f-6844eea68f22

Ethereum’s supply‑in‑loss metric rises to levels last seen after the November 2022 FTX crash, signaling potential seller exhaustion as ETH trades around $2,350.

Ethereum’s on‑chain “supply‑in‑loss” metric climbed back to the range seen after the November 2022 FTX‑related capitulation, while the token trades near $2,350 USD — a level that follows a 6% weekly gain but remains far below its all‑time high [2].

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $2,350 |
| 24‑hour change | +6% |
| Supply‑in‑loss level | Near post‑FTX bottom (Nov 2022) |
| Catalyst | Sharp drawdown pushing ETH holders into unrealized loss |

## On‑chain stress gauge

Glassnode’s supply‑in‑loss chart tracks the amount of ETH held below its on‑chain cost basis. A rise indicates that more coins sit at an unrealized loss, a condition that often follows steep market corrections. The current reading matches the “pain zone” that followed the FTX collapse in November 2022, a period marked by forced selling and a deep market bottom [1][3]. While a high underwater supply does not guarantee an immediate bounce, it can signal that many speculative holders have already been flushed out, potentially limiting further panic‑driven selling.

## Price context and next steps

Despite record on‑chain activity—over 200 million base‑layer transactions in Q1 2026 and an 82% quarter‑over‑quarter rise in new users—ETH’s price remains subdued, hovering around $2,350, a level that reflects a 32% drop in Q1, the third‑worst first quarter since 2016 [2]. The token’s recent 6% weekly gain shows short‑term resilience, but analysts stress that price confirmation is needed before the underwater‑supply signal can be viewed as a durable bottom. A break above recent support levels would be required to shift sentiment from stress gauge to accumulation signal.

## What to watch
- **Price break of $2,500** – a key resistance that, if cleared, could validate a bottoming process.  
- **Supply‑in‑loss metric** – continued decline would suggest further seller exhaustion; a rise could reignite downside pressure.  
- **Ethereum ETF flows** – weekly inflows of $187 million (week ending April 10) indicate cautious institutional interest; a shift to sustained outflows would add bearish pressure [2].

The convergence of a historically high underwater supply and modest price recovery leaves the market at a crossroads: either the lingering pain translates into a base for renewed buying, or further downside could deepen the drawdown. Traders will be watching price action and on‑chain metrics closely to see which path unfolds.

## Sources
1. Newsbtc — [Ethereum's Underwater Supply Matches Post-FTX ... - NewsBTC](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/ethereum-s-underwater-supply-matches-post-ftx-capitulation-bottom/)
2. 24/7 Wall St — [Ethereum Price Prediction: How Much Will 1 ETH Be Worth by 2030?](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/19/ethereum-price-prediction-how-much-will-1-eth-be-worth-by-2030/)
3. Cryptonews — [Ethereum’s Underwater Supply Matches Post-FTX Capitulation Bottom](https://cryptonews.net/news/ethereum/33026668/)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Ethereum underwater supply hits post‑FTX capitulation levels", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/a88cf947-e3f5-4ef4-9b5f-6844eea68f22