# Gold drops below $4,100 as Brent hits $100 and 10‑yr yield tops 4.70%

**Published:** 2026-07-23T18:49:04.846Z  
**Topic:** Gold  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/9f44cf5b-d67c-4c2a-b719-dd77da5fc7de

Gold falls to $4,055 amid $100 Brent crude, 10‑yr Treasury yield 4.707% and 80% odds of a Fed hike – see the key numbers and market impact.

Gold slipped to $4,055.73 per ounce on Thursday, a 1.79% drop that coincided with Brent crude breaching $100 and the 10‑year Treasury yield climbing to 4.707%, its highest level since January 2025【2】. The move pressured the dollar index up 0.25% to 101.35 and reinforced market expectations of an 80% chance of a September Fed rate hike【2】.

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Spot gold price | $4,055.73 |
| Brent crude price | > $100 per barrel |
| 10‑yr Treasury yield | 4.707% |
| Fed hike odds (Sept) | 80% |

## Oil shock and rate‑hike expectations

Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove Brent crude above $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, reviving fears of a new chokepoint for global oil supplies【1】【2】. Higher oil prices revived inflation concerns, prompting traders to price in a roughly 78% probability of a Fed hike in September, later rising to 80% on Thursday【1】【2】. The combination of rising yields and a firmer dollar squeezed gold, a non‑yielding asset, back below the $4,100 threshold【1】.

## Technical backdrop and market sentiment

Technical indicators show gold entrenched in a downtrend. The spot price sits beneath the 50‑day moving average at $4,241 and the 200‑day average at $4,495, with the 4‑hour RSI near 44, indicating limited upside momentum【2】【3】. Short‑term support clusters around $4,041–$4,072, while longer‑term support lies near $3,886. The market’s bearish bias was reinforced by a sharp decline in initial jobless claims to 187,000—the lowest since 1969—removing a key argument for a softer Fed stance【2】.

## Forecasts and near‑term outlook

Trading Economics projects gold at $4,090.93 by the end of the current quarter and $4,389.32 in twelve months, suggesting modest upside if oil prices retreat and yields ease【1】. However, the prevailing view in the technical analysis is that gold will need crude prices to pull back before any meaningful recovery can occur【2】.

## What to watch
- **U.S. non‑farm payrolls** (scheduled for the first Friday of August) – a stronger jobs report could cement the 80% hike probability.
- **Brent crude price** – a sustained move below $95 would ease inflation fears and could relieve pressure on gold.
- **10‑year Treasury yield** – a break below 4.60% would weaken the dollar and may provide support for gold near $4,100.

Gold’s slide underscores how quickly geopolitical shocks can translate into higher oil prices, tighter monetary expectations, and a stronger dollar, all of which weigh on bullion. The next week’s Fed meeting and upcoming employment data will determine whether the current bearish pressure deepens or gives way to a short‑term bounce.

## Sources
1. Tradingeconomics — [Gold - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold)
2. FX Empire — [Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: $100 Brent and 4.70% 10-Year Put $4,000 in Play](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-xauusd-price-forecast-100-brent-and-4-70-10-year-put-4000-in-play-1612377)
3. Fxstreet — [Gold Forecast, News and Analysis (XAU/USD) - FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/commodities/metals/gold)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Gold drops below $4,100 as Brent hits $100 and 10‑yr yield tops 4.70%", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/9f44cf5b-d67c-4c2a-b719-dd77da5fc7de