# Dow Jones futures rise as small‑business optimism lifts markets, jobs

**Published:** 2026-08-13T05:56:56.758Z  
**Topic:** Inflation  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/9d0c4f82-1893-433d-a00f-f1b0f864f746

Dow futures up, NFIB optimism hits 99.8, 10‑yr yield 4.73%, jobs down 23 k vs 83 k forecast – see why markets rallied.

U.S. stock futures turned modest gains into a broad‑based rise on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all higher after Monday’s dip, while the 10‑year Treasury yielded 4.73% and the jobs report showed a 23,000‑job loss versus an 83,000‑job gain forecast.

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Futures trend | Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 up after Monday’s decline |
| NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | 99.8, up 2.4 points, highest since Aug 2025 |
| 10‑yr Treasury yield | 4.73% |
| Fed hike probability (Sep) | 51.9% (CME FedWatch) |
| Jobs report | -23 k vs +83 k expected, unemployment 4.1% |

## Small‑business sentiment fuels optimism  
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed to 99.8 in July, surpassing its 52‑year historical average of 98.0 and marking the highest reading since August 2025. The rise was driven by a 9‑point jump in hiring plans to a net 20% and stronger capital‑expenditure expectations, suggesting that smaller firms see spillover benefits from broader economic growth despite persistent inflation and geopolitical risks [1].

## Labor data and market reaction  
The jobs report released earlier in the day showed the economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, far below economists’ consensus for an 83,000‑job gain, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% [2]. The unexpected loss helped curb concerns about an overheating labor market, supporting the view that the Fed may pause rate hikes. Nonetheless, the CME FedWatch tool still priced a 51.9% chance of a September rate increase, indicating lingering uncertainty among traders [1].

## Fixed‑income and commodity backdrop  
Treasury yields rose modestly, with the 10‑year at 4.73% and the two‑year at 4.03%, reflecting the market’s mixed read on inflation and policy expectations [1]. Commodity prices moved in tandem: WTI crude rose 2.76% to about $84.40 per barrel, while gold slipped to $4,375.50 per ounce and the U.S. dollar index edged up to 99.8490 [1]. These moves underscore the broader risk‑on tone that lifted equities despite the weaker jobs print.

## What to watch  
- **September Fed meeting** – a rate decision will confirm whether the market’s 51.9% hike probability holds.  
- **July‑August NFIB index trend** – a sustained rise could reinforce confidence in small‑business hiring and capex.  
- **Next jobs report (Sept)** – a swing back toward expected job gains would test the resilience of the current equity rally.

The juxtaposition of a surprisingly soft jobs report with rising small‑business optimism highlights a market caught between lingering inflation concerns and a hopeful outlook for corporate investment. How the Fed interprets these mixed signals will shape equity and bond dynamics in the weeks ahead.

## Sources
1. Benzinga — [Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 futures rise as Trump demands compe...](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/08/61100855/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-futures-slip-as-trump-demands-compensation-from-iran-rocket-lab-asts-spacemobile-plug-power-in-focus)
2. Morningstar — [Dow Jones Top Markets Headlines at 9 AM ET: U.S. Lost 23,000 Jobs in July, While...](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202608076654/dow-jones-top-markets-headlines-at-9-am-et-us-lost-23000-jobs-in-july-while-unemployment-ticked-lower-food)
3. Morningstar — [Dow Jones Top Company Headlines at 1 AM ET: Intel Shares Rise as Sales Surge 25% in Second Quarter | Inside ...](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/20260724372/dow-jones-top-company-headlines-at-1-am-et-intel-shares-rise-as-sales-surge-25-in-second-quarter-inside)

---
Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Dow Jones futures rise as small‑business optimism lifts markets, jobs", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/9d0c4f82-1893-433d-a00f-f1b0f864f746