# Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Shows Historical Bull Market Peaks

**Published:** 2026-08-18T18:02:56.850Z  
**Topic:** Stock To Flow  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/7a5b955e-3566-4bfc-8f63-d90d198abfaa

Bitcoin's price has historically deviated significantly from its Stock-to-Flow model at bull market peaks, rallying +1157% in 2011, +477% in April 2013, and

Technical analysis of Bitcoin's price deviations from the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which quantifies scarcity, suggests historical patterns in identifying bull market peaks [1]. These deviations, particularly to the upside, have preceded significant market tops and bottoms, offering insights into potential future price action [1, 2].

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Model Focus | Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow deviations |
| Key Pattern | Upside deviations precede bull market peaks |
| 2011 Deviation | +1157% above S2F line [1] |
| April 2013 Deviation | +477% above S2F line [1] |
| December 2013 Deviation | +554% above S2F line [1] |

## Historical Deviations and Bull Market Peaks

The Bitcoin Halving, an event occurring approximately every four years, fundamentally alters the rate of new Bitcoin creation, increasing scarcity and acting as a catalyst for price increases [1, 2]. The S2F model, created by Plan B, tracks this scarcity and has historically correlated with Bitcoin's price [1, 2]. However, analysts focus on how Bitcoin's price deviates from the S2F line, rather than strictly following it, to identify market turning points [1, 2].

The first significant upside deviation occurred during the June 2011 bull market peak [1, 2]. Bitcoin's price crossed the S2F line at approximately $1.90 and peaked at $28.79, while the S2F line itself was around $2.29 [1]. This represented a rally of approximately +1157% beyond the S2F line before the market entered a bear phase [1].

The second major upside deviation was observed in April 2013 [1, 2]. Bitcoin's price broke past the S2F line at $32.25 on February 28, 2013, and surged to a peak of $230.68 by April 9, 2013 [1]. At this peak, the S2F line was at $39.95 [1]. This rally represented an approximate +477% deviation above the S2F line, after which Bitcoin corrected by -80% [1]. Interestingly, the S2F line later acted as dynamic support, with Bitcoin rebounding from it at $66.34 on July 6, 2013, and again on October 5, 2013, forming a higher low that preceded a new bull market [1].

The third upside deviation occurred in December 2013 [1, 2]. Following the S2F line acting as support in early October 2013, when Bitcoin was around $122, the price rallied to a new all-time high of $1134.93 [1]. At this peak, the S2F line was at $173.41 [1]. This deviation saw Bitcoin's price rally approximately +554% beyond the S2F line [1].

## What to watch

*   **Future S2F deviations:** Monitor the magnitude of Bitcoin's price deviations above the S2F line in the current market cycle, comparing them to historical percentages of +1157%, +477%, and +554% [1].
*   **S2F as support/resistance:** Observe if the S2F line continues to act as dynamic support during pullbacks or resistance during uptrends, as it did in late 2013 [1].
*   **Part 2 analysis:** Await the release of Part 2 of the Stock-to-Flow series, which is expected to cover remaining upside deviations and offer further insights into potential future peak predictions [1].

The historical analysis of Bitcoin's price deviations from the Stock-to-Flow model provides a framework for understanding past bull market peaks, though it remains to be seen how these patterns will manifest in the current cycle [1].

## Sources
1. Bravenewcoin — [Stock To Flow - Measuring The Bitcoin Peak Using Data Science - Brave New Coin](https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/stock-to-flow-measuring-the-bitcoin-peak-using-data-science)
2. Hackernoon — [Measuring The Bitcoin Peak Using Data Science: Stock-To-Flow Deviations - Part 1 | HackerNoon](https://hackernoon.com/measuring-the-bitcoin-peak-using-data-science-stock-to-flow-deviations-part-1-fvh3370)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Shows Historical Bull Market Peaks", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/7a5b955e-3566-4bfc-8f63-d90d198abfaa