# Vitalik Buterin calls Bitcoin stock‑to‑flow model harmful after price

**Published:** 2026-07-30T07:46:50.573Z  
**Topic:** Stock To Flow  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/72da25ec-c3e6-4061-93b1-41fd647e93f5

Vitalik Buterin slams the Bitcoin stock‑to‑flow price model as “false” and “harmful” after BTC slipped to $20,845, far below the model’s $67,175 target

Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum co‑founder, labeled the Bitcoin stock‑to‑flow (S2F) model “false” and “harmful” on June 21, 2022, after Bitcoin traded around $20,845—well under the S2F forecast of $67,175 for mid‑June and far from the model’s 2022 $100‑110 k range [1][3].

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $20,845 |
| 24h change | – ≈ 2 % (price fell from just above $20,000) |
| Model target missed | $67,175 (S2F forecast for June 18) |
| Catalyst | Buterin’s public criticism of S2F model |

## Why the criticism matters  
Buterin’s tweet echoed EthHub co‑founder Anthony Sassano, who called the S2F model “an epic failure.” The model, created by analyst PlanB, links Bitcoin’s circulating supply (“stock”) to the annual mining rate (“flow”) and has historically suggested that scarcity drives price up. Its 2022 projection of $100‑110 k has been invalidated by the market’s 18‑month low under $20 k [1]. PlanB himself admitted the model “enjoyed a good run” until March 2022 before deviating from its trajectory [1].

## Market context and on‑chain backdrop  
Bitcoin’s price drop to $20,845 occurred amid a broader crypto market slump, with the asset losing roughly 80 % of its 2021 peak. The S2F ratio, which rose sharply after each halving, has not translated into price gains this cycle, prompting analysts to question its predictive power. No new supply unlocks or major on‑chain events were cited as drivers of the price move; the primary narrative is the mismatch between the model’s expectations and actual market behavior [1][3].

## Reactions from the model’s author  
PlanB responded to Buterin’s critique by suggesting that the market’s downturn could lead some investors to seek “scapegoats” for poor outcomes, while also noting that Bitcoin might be “extremely undervalued” and could rebound, or that S2F may simply lose relevance [1].

## What to watch
- **Price level:** $25,000 – a psychological resistance that could test the model’s credibility if breached.  
- **On‑chain metric:** Changes in the stock‑to‑flow ratio after the next halving (expected in 2024) may reignite debate over the model’s validity.  
- **Regulatory signal:** Any U.S. ETF approval for Bitcoin could provide fresh demand, potentially narrowing the gap between S2F forecasts and market price.

Buterin’s dismissal underscores a growing skepticism toward deterministic price models in crypto, especially as Bitcoin’s actual price diverges sharply from S2F projections. Whether the model will adapt or fade remains an open question for analysts and investors alike.

## Sources
1. Cryptonews — [Vitalik Buterin Claims BTC Stock-to-Flow Model is False](https://cryptonews.com.au/news/vitalik-buterin-claims-btc-stock-to-flow-model-is-false-95134/)
2. The Block — [Vitalik Buterin critiques stock-to-flow model as giving 'false sense...](https://www.theblock.co/post/153224/vitalik-buterin-critiques-stock-to-flow-model-as-giving-false-sense-of-certainty)
3. Decrypt — [Vitalik Buterin: Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin Price Model 'Really... - Decrypt](https://decrypt.co/103424/vitalik-buterin-stock-to-flow-bitcoin-price-model-really-not-looking-good-now)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Vitalik Buterin calls Bitcoin stock‑to‑flow model harmful after price", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/72da25ec-c3e6-4061-93b1-41fd647e93f5