# Ben Emons says inflation will keep rising, warns of hawkish Fed

**Published:** 2026-07-21T19:20:23.543Z  
**Topic:** Inflation  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/6fa4c936-954d-40a4-9d06-e8d0bd734ee4

Ben Emons predicts inflation will not moderate but climb higher, citing tariffs and energy costs as drivers and urging investors to watch Fed policy and

Ben Emons, founder of FedWatch Advisors, warned that U.S. inflation “is not going to moderate. It is going higher” as tariffs and energy prices continue to weigh on price pressures, signalling a likely continuation of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and prompting market participants to reassess risk‑on positions【1】.  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Inflation outlook | Rising, not moderating【1】 |
| Fed policy expectation | Remain hawkish amid higher inflation【1】 |
| Market implication | Selective tech names such as IBM seen as value【1】 |
| Key driver cited | Tariffs and energy costs keeping price pressures elevated【1】 |

## Inflation drivers and Fed stance  
Emons pointed to two primary contributors to the upward pressure on consumer prices: ongoing tariff measures and volatile energy markets. He argued that these factors are likely to sustain inflation above the Fed’s 2 % target, reducing the probability of a rate‑cut cycle in the near term. While he did not provide a specific inflation rate, his assessment aligns with recent data showing energy‑related price components remaining elevated, a trend that analysts have flagged as a drag on any near‑term moderation.

## Market reaction and sector focus  
In response to Emons’ commentary, investors have begun to tilt toward sectors perceived as defensive or undervalued. He highlighted technology stalwarts such as IBM as offering “value” amid broader equity volatility, suggesting that quality‑focused names may outperform as the Fed maintains tighter monetary policy. No immediate price moves were reported, but the emphasis on selective tech underscores a shift away from growth‑heavy stocks that are more sensitive to higher rates.

## What to watch  
- Upcoming CPI release (date not specified) to gauge whether inflation trends confirm Emons’ forecast.  
- Federal Reserve meeting schedule, where any signal of continued hawkishness could reinforce market positioning.  
- Energy price developments, especially crude oil and natural gas, which could further influence inflation dynamics.  

Emons’ warning raises a pivotal question for policymakers and investors: if inflation indeed accelerates, how long can the Fed sustain a hawkish posture without triggering a sharper economic slowdown? The answer will hinge on forthcoming data and the Fed’s willingness to balance price stability against growth concerns.

## Sources
1. CNBC on MSN — [Ben Emons: Inflation is not going to moderate. It is going higher](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/ben-emons-inflation-is-not-going-to-moderate-it-is-going-higher/vi-AA28mWuU?ocid=BingNewsVerp)
2. CNBC — [Ben Emons: Inflation is not going to moderate. It is going higher](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/07/21/ben-emons-inflation-is-not-going-to-moderate-it-is-going-higher.html)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Ben Emons says inflation will keep rising, warns of hawkish Fed", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/6fa4c936-954d-40a4-9d06-e8d0bd734ee4