# Bitcoin near $81,000 as ETF inflows boost supply squeeze

**Published:** 2026-07-13T17:34:10.105Z  
**Topic:** On Chain Analysis  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/6e110f65-41e2-44ee-9c94-08953d987014

Bitcoin trades around $81,000, 35% below its $126K peak. Spot ETF inflows, corporate buying and halving cycle dynamics shape the 2025‑2026 outlook.

Bitcoin is trading at roughly $81,000, about 35% under its October 2025 all‑time high of $126,000, as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases tighten on‑chain supply【1】. The price level matters because it sits near the $80‑$85 K range that analysts see as the next support‑to‑resistance corridor for the remainder of the 2025‑2026 market cycle.

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $81,000 |
| 24h change | –0.4% (approx.) |
| Key level | $80,000‑$85,000 support/resistance |
| Catalyst | Spot ETF inflows and Strategy’s treasury buying |

## ETF inflows tighten supply  

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed $106 billion in total assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone holding $66.9 billion and accounting for 66% of the market【1】. In April 2026 the ETFs absorbed roughly 19,000 BTC over a nine‑day streak—nine times the daily new supply from miners—removing a sizable chunk of coins from exchanges and creating a scarcity premium that could push price higher.  

## Corporate treasury buying adds a second leg  

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, increased its stash to 818,869 BTC (about 3.8% of the 21 million‑coin supply) and maintains an average cost of $75,543 per coin【2】. The firm added nearly 179,000 BTC since October 2025, illustrating strong institutional demand that further reduces circulating supply.  

## Halving cycle context  

Every Bitcoin halving historically yields a price peak 12‑18 months later. The most recent halving on 20 April 2024 was followed by the $126,000 high in October 2025, fitting the pattern. Standard Chartered and Bernstein project a $150,000 target by year‑end, requiring an 88% gain from the current $81,000 level【1】. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, however, argues the October 2025 peak may be the cycle top, with 2026 likely to be “dormant” and price stabilising between $65,000 and $75,000【1】.  

## Retail activity shows mixed signals  

On‑chain data indicate a modest rebound in retail‑size transaction volume, rising from a low of –8.2% on 5 April to +6.31% on 6 May, before settling near +4.38% on 12 May while Bitcoin hovered at $80,625【2】. Although retail flow has improved, it remains below February’s levels, suggesting that broader market sentiment is still neutral‑to‑fearful.  

## What to watch  

- **$85,000 resistance** – a sustained close above this level could signal the start of a new rally.  
- **CLARITY Act vote** – legislative outcome expected later in 2026; approval could unlock further ETF inflows.  
- **Strategy’s buying pace** – continued accumulation above the $75,543 average cost would reinforce the supply squeeze.  

The price now sits at a pivotal juncture where ETF‑driven scarcity and corporate treasury buying could extend the halving‑cycle rally, but divergent analyst views on whether 2025 marked the peak keep the outlook uncertain.

## Sources
1. AOL — [Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Says BTC Should Be at $150,000 by End of 2026](https://www.aol.com/articles/bitcoin-4-cycle-says-btc-174705000.html)
2. CoinTelegraph — [Bitcoin may avoid historic bear market losses as ETF flows grow, says analyst](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-may-avoid-historic-bear-market-losses-etf-flows-grow-says-analyst)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Bitcoin near $81,000 as ETF inflows boost supply squeeze", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/6e110f65-41e2-44ee-9c94-08953d987014