# New Zealand consumer confidence jumps to 98.8 in June

**Published:** 2026-07-03T20:54:14.923Z  
**Topic:** Inflation  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/66b59f37-63c8-4bbc-8cfb-29bda93ce718

New Zealand ANZ‑Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose to 98.8 in June, up 5.9 points and beating expectations, while inflation expectations edged higher to 4.9%.

New Zealand’s ANZ‑Roy Morgan consumer confidence index climbed to **98.8 in June**, a 5.9‑point gain from May’s 92.9 and the strongest monthly rise so far this year, signalling a modest improvement in household sentiment despite lingering inflation worries【1】.

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Confidence index | 98.8 (June) |
| Prior reading | 92.9 (May) |
| Inflation expectations | 4.9 % (two‑year ahead) |
| Market reaction | NZD‑USD little changed (no immediate move reported) |

## Why the index rose

The jump reflects a rebound in several component questions. The “future conditions” sub‑index rose eight points to 104.8, while the “current conditions” index gained three points to 89.8【3】. Households also became slightly more optimistic about their personal finances, with the net share expecting to be better off next year rising to 20 %—up eight points month‑over‑month【3】. Nonetheless, key indicators remain in negative territory; the proportion of households that view it as a good time to buy a major appliance stayed at –7, and the “good time to buy” sentiment is still weak【1】.

## Inflation expectations and the policy backdrop

Annual inflation expectations ticked up 0.3 percentage points to **4.9 %**, the highest level since April 2023, driven largely by food price inflation running at 4.4 %【1】【3】. Two‑year‑ahead CPI expectations also rose from 4.6 % to 4.9 %【5】. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner linked the rise to “global tariff noise and concerns about energy prices,” noting that household electricity costs are increasing as higher line charges are passed on【1】. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) currently holds the Official Cash Rate at 5.50 %; the modest confidence lift may temper expectations of near‑term rate cuts, though the central bank still faces a soft economic outlook【4】.

## Market implications

While the confidence gain did not trigger an immediate move in the kiwi, analysts see the data as a potential catalyst for a more hawkish tone from the RBNZ, reducing the likelihood of early easing【4】. A stronger consumer sentiment reading could also support retail sales, which fell 0.4 % in Q1 2026, and bolster earnings in consumer‑discretionary sectors on the NZX 50【4】.

## What to watch
- **RBNZ monetary‑policy meeting** (scheduled for later this quarter) – any shift in tone could move the NZD and local bond yields.  
- **Q2 CPI release** – will confirm whether the easing of inflation expectations is translating into lower headline inflation.  
- **Retail sales data** – a rebound would reinforce the link between consumer confidence and spending.

The June confidence bounce shows households are cautiously more upbeat, but persistent inflation worries and a still‑negative retail outlook mean the recovery remains fragile and closely tied to upcoming policy and price‑trend data.

## Sources
1. Rnz — [Consumer confidence up despite inflation worries | RNZ News](https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/565311/consumer-confidence-up-despite-inflation-worries)
2. Home Textiles Today — [June Consumer Confidence sees slight rise, brings cautious optimism](https://www.hometextilestoday.com/research-and-analysis/june-consumer-confidence-sees-slight-rise-brings-cautious-optimism/)
3. Roymorgan — [ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence increases to 98.8 ...](https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9922_anz-roy-morgan-new-zealand-consumer-confidence-june-2025)
4. Vtmarkets — [New Zealand consumer confidence rises in June, testing RBNZ cut ...](https://www.vtmarkets.net/live-updates/new-zealand-consumer-confidence-rises-in-june-testing-rbnz-cut-expectations-and-lifting-kiwi-prospects/)
5. Tradingeconomics — [New Zealand ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index](https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-index)
6. Iux24 — [New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rises as Inflation Expectations Ease](https://www.iux24.com/news/new-zealand-consumer-confidence-rises-to-91-3-as-inflation-eases-20260702)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "New Zealand consumer confidence jumps to 98.8 in June", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/66b59f37-63c8-4bbc-8cfb-29bda93ce718