# Bitcoin Stock to Flow explained – ratio, calculation and limits

**Published:** 2026-07-30T07:46:50.573Z  
**Topic:** Stock To Flow  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/47a83c19-f7b3-4167-916a-318dc6f1186d

Bitcoin Stock to Flow ratio sits at 116.7, showing extreme scarcity. Learn how the metric is calculated, its predictive track record and key drawbacks for

Bitcoin’s Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) ratio stands at **116.7**, derived from roughly **19.17 million BTC** already mined versus an annual inflow of **191,250 BTC** [1]. This high ratio signals extreme scarcity and underpins the model that links Bitcoin’s price to its limited supply.  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| S2F ratio | 116.7 |
| Stock (circulating BTC) | 19.171 million |
| Annual flow (new BTC) | 191,250 |
| Catalyst for model | Halving‑driven supply cuts |

## How the ratio is built  

The S2F metric divides the total existing supply (“stock”) by the yearly creation of new units (“flow”). For Bitcoin, the stock equals the cumulative mined coins, currently just over 19.2 million out of a 21‑million cap [1]. Flow is calculated from the block reward of 3.125 BTC every 10 minutes, which translates to about 191,250 new BTC each year. The resulting ratio of 116.7 is far higher than gold’s 62.3, implying that Bitcoin would need roughly 117 years of mining to double its existing supply [1].  

## Track record and criticism  

Proponents cite a strong historical correlation: from 2015 through the end of 2021, the S2F curve tracked Bitcoin’s price rise, even as the asset hit an all‑time high of **$69,000** in November 2021 [1]. However, the model missed price movements in 2011, 2013, and after the 2021 peak, when Bitcoin fell sharply and diverged from the S2F line [1]. Critics point to the model’s simplicity—it only considers stock and flow, ignoring market sentiment, macro news, and sudden shocks such as the “black‑Wednesday” crash on 19 May 2021 [2]. The model also failed to predict the 2022 price ceiling, overestimating a $100,000 target [1].

## Forecasts derived from S2F  

Plan B, the analyst who popularized the model, projected Bitcoin could surpass **$100,000** by the end of 2021 and reach **$1 million** by 2025 [2]. These forecasts assume the S2F ratio continues to rise as halving events halve the flow every four years, theoretically driving price up tenfold each cycle [2].  

## What to watch  

- **Next halving** – scheduled for 2024, will cut the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, reducing annual flow and pushing the S2F ratio higher.  
- **Price testing of $69,000** – the 2021 peak remains a psychological barrier; a breach could reinforce the model’s relevance.  
- **On‑chain supply metrics** – monitor the proportion of BTC held by the top 1 % of addresses; concentration shifts can affect price dynamics independent of S2F.  

The S2F ratio offers a clear, scarcity‑focused lens on Bitcoin’s valuation, yet its predictive power is limited by the model’s narrow focus and the market’s volatility. Whether future halvings will restore its historical alignment remains an open question.

## Sources
1. Bitcoinvn — [Bitcoin Stock to Flow là gì? Ưu nhược điểm và cách tính](https://bitcoinvn.io/insights/vi/stock-to-flow-la-gi/)
2. Dautucoin — [Bitcoin Stock to Flow là gì? Dự đoán giá BTC qua mô hình STF như thế nào?](https://dautucoin.io/mo-hinh-bitcoin-stock-to-flow.html)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Bitcoin Stock to Flow explained – ratio, calculation and limits", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/47a83c19-f7b3-4167-916a-318dc6f1186d