# MicroStrategy stock falls to $155, RSI shows oversold condition

**Published:** 2026-06-24T16:59:37.876Z  
**Topic:** Microstrategy Bitcoin  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/391c1a59-9504-4703-b30c-50f4f956d73e

MicroStrategy (MSTR) trades near $155, entering oversold RSI territory and hitting $125‑$160 support. Dilution and MSCI index risk add pressure.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) slipped to about $155 on the day, pushing the 13‑period weekly RSI into oversold territory and landing the share price within its $125‑$160 medium‑term support band [2].

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $155 |
| 24‑hour change | – ≈ 1% (price fell to $155) |
| Key level | $125‑$160 support zone |
| Catalyst | RSI oversold; dilution from share issuances and MSCI index‑removal risk [2] |

## Price pressure and technical signal  
The weekly 13‑period RSI dropped below the oversold threshold, echoing past lows in June 2002, November 2012 and May 2022 that preceded strong rebounds. Those historical patterns suggest a potential floor, but the current environment differs because the stock is now a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle. Since early 2024, MicroStrategy’s basic share count has risen from roughly 158 million to 296 million, nearly doubling its dilution as it raises equity to buy more BTC [2]. This dilution erodes Bitcoin per share unless BTC price outpaces the share expansion, adding a structural headwind to the price.

## Structural risks beyond the chart  
Beyond technical factors, MSCI is reviewing “digital‑asset treasury” firms that hold more than 50 % of assets in crypto. MicroStrategy sits well above that threshold, and a final decision is due 15 January 2026, with any removal slated for the February 2026 index review. JPMorgan estimates passive outflows of $2.8 billion if MSTR is dropped from MSCI alone, potentially rising to $8.8 billion if other index families follow [2]. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative‑tightening cycle is winding down, which could ease liquidity pressure on Bitcoin and, by extension, on MSTR [2].

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Basic shares (early 2024) | ~158 million |
| Basic shares (now) | ~296 million |
| MSCI decision deadline | 15 Jan 2026 |
| Potential passive outflow | $2.8 bn (MSCI only) |

## What to watch
- **Price thresholds:** $125 support and $160 resistance as the medium‑term range; a break below $125 could signal deeper weakness.  
- **Index risk:** MSCI’s final decision on 15 January 2026 and the February 2026 index review for possible removal.  
- **Dilution timeline:** Ongoing equity raises that could further increase the share count and dilute Bitcoin per share.

The convergence of an oversold technical signal, aggressive share dilution, and looming MSCI index risk creates a multi‑layered challenge for MicroStrategy. Whether the stock can rally from its current support will depend on Bitcoin’s price trajectory and the outcome of the MSCI review.

## Sources
1. Insider Monkey — [Why MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) is One of the Most Oversold NASDAQ Stocks to Invest In](https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/why-microstrategy-incorporated-mstr-is-one-of-the-most-oversold-nasdaq-stocks-to-invest-in-1693813/)
2. Investing.com — [MicroStrategy Is Oversold, but History Says That Matters](https://www.investing.com/analysis/microstrategy-is-oversold-but-history-says-that-matters-200671082)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "MicroStrategy stock falls to $155, RSI shows oversold condition", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/391c1a59-9504-4703-b30c-50f4f956d73e