# S&P 500 poised for third consecutive year of 20%+ gains

**Published:** 2026-06-28T19:32:20.243Z  
**Topic:** S P 500  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/2bc7082d-8358-47e9-931f-8789070e6c8e

S&P 500 on track for a third straight year of 20%+ returns, a pattern seen only eight times since 1950. Learn the historical context and what analysts forecast.

The S&P 500 is on pace for a third straight year of at least 20% gains, a feat recorded only eight times since 1950, underscoring the rarity of such a prolonged rally【1】.

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Annual gain target (3rd year) | ≥ 20% |
| Historical frequency | 8 occurrences since 1950 |
| Total rally gain to date | ≈ 68% since Oct 12 2022 |
| Average 3rd‑year return (historical) | 12% |
| EPS forecast 2025 | $269 (19% rise from early 2023) |
| Deutsche Bank year‑end target | 7,000 (≈ 16% upside) |

### Historical backdrop

The current bull market began on 12 Oct 2022 and has already delivered roughly a 68% gain, well short of the 180% average bull‑market return that typically unfolds over just over five years. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, identified eight post‑1950 periods where the S&P 500 posted back‑to‑back annual gains of 20% or more; six of those extended into a third year, with an average third‑year return of 12%【1】. This context highlights how uncommon a third consecutive 20%‑plus year is and suggests that, if history repeats, the index could add another double‑digit gain before the rally ends.

### Earnings outlook and market sentiment

Corporate earnings are a key driver of the rally. S&P 500 constituents are projected to generate $269 in earnings per share for 2025, a 19% increase from early‑2023 levels【1】. Analyst optimism is reflected in Deutsche Bank’s revised year‑end target of 7,000 for the index, implying roughly a 16% upside from current levels【1】. Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni is even more bullish, forecasting the index to reach 7,000 next year, 8,000 by 2026, and 10,000 by 2030, based on continued earnings growth【1】. These forward‑looking estimates reinforce the view that the strong economy and rising corporate profits are likely to sustain the rally.

## What to watch
- **U.S. corporate earnings releases** in Q1 2025, especially the consensus EPS beat/miss, which could validate or challenge the $269 forecast.  
- **Federal Reserve policy meetings** (next scheduled for March 2025) for any shift in interest‑rate outlook that might affect equity valuations.  
- **Deutsche Bank’s target revisions** or other major broker updates, as a downgrade could signal a turning point in market sentiment.

If the S&P 500 sustains its trajectory, the third‑year gain could push the rally toward the historical average of 12% for a third year, extending a rare multi‑year bull market. Conversely, any deviation in earnings growth or a policy shock could test the durability of this unprecedented streak.

## Sources
1. Under30ceo — [S&P 500 on track for third yearly gain](https://www.under30ceo.com/sp-500-on-track-for-third-yearly-gain/)
2. The Motley Fool — [Can the S&P 500 Continue Soaring Higher After a Strong Q3 ...](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/10/can-the-sp-500-continue-soaring-higher-after-a-str/)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "S&P 500 poised for third consecutive year of 20%+ gains", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/2bc7082d-8358-47e9-931f-8789070e6c8e