# Goldman Sachs sees AI and energy split driving North‑South Asian

**Published:** 2026-05-20T00:36:00.000Z  
**Topic:** Stock Market  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/290d49ac-4e0a-4d31-af10-5ca208616238

Goldman Sachs flags AI‑led outperformance in North Asia versus 25% drop in South Asia, citing energy buffers and semiconductor growth.

North Asian equities are outpacing their southern peers, with South Korea up more than 80% YTD while Indonesia falls about 25%, as Goldman Sachs points to stronger energy buffers and AI‑related semiconductor demand as the key drivers【3】.  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| South Korea YTD gain | >80% |
| Indonesia YTD loss | –25% |
| KOSPI 12‑month target | 9,000 (up from 8,000) |
| AI‑linked capex growth | $755 bn, +38% YoY |

## AI and energy resilience shape the regional divide  
Goldman’s Tim Moe explained that North Asian markets—particularly South Korea, Taiwan and Japan—benefit from “greater buffer stocks” and fiscal capacity to absorb higher oil and gas prices, unlike South Asian economies that lack such cushions【3】. This energy resilience, combined with a surge in AI‑related semiconductor spending, is fueling a “massive outperformance” in the north. Hyperscalers are committing roughly $755 billion to capital expenditures this year, a 38% year‑over‑year increase, which underpins semiconductor earnings and keeps AI stocks in demand【1】.  

## Market reactions and valuation cautions  
The north‑south split is already reflected in equity targets: Goldman raised its 12‑month KOSPI forecast to 9,000 from 8,000, citing potential 300% earnings growth—its strongest outlook for any Asian market aside from the 1999 post‑crisis rebound【2】. Yet Moe warned that Korean semiconductor giants such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix trade at roughly five‑ to six‑times this year’s earnings and four‑times next year’s, suggesting market skepticism about the durability of current profit levels【3】.  

## Regional nuances beyond the headline numbers  
In China, A‑shares have risen about 10% YTD, outperforming H‑shares, which lag due to weaker earnings in internet‑application firms and a heavier exposure to the softer end of the AI trade【3】. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s index is roughly 80% tech‑oriented, South Korea’s about 60%, and Japan’s 30%, explaining why the AI boom lifts those markets more than others【3】.  

## What to watch  
- Upcoming Asian central‑bank meetings (e.g., Bank of Korea, Bank of Japan) for policy shifts that could affect energy‑price pass‑through.  
- Quarterly earnings of Korean semiconductor firms; a miss could test the high valuation multiples noted by Moe.  
- Any significant change in global oil prices, which would test the “energy buffer” advantage of North Asian economies.  

The split highlights how AI‑driven semiconductor demand and energy‑price resilience are redefining investment focus across Asia, but the sustainability of the north’s rally hinges on earnings durability and the trajectory of global energy markets.

## Sources
1. Business Insider — [Forget the bubble. Wall Street is treating AI like a defensive trade, Goldman Sachs says.](https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-ai-defensive-trade-next-big-winner-cooling-systems-2026-5)
2. Prismnews — [Goldman Sachs says North Asia leads Asia on AI and memory boom | Prism News](https://www.prismnews.com/workplace/goldman-sachs/goldman-sachs-says-north-asia-leads-asia-on-ai-and-memory)
3. CNBC — [Goldman Sachs says AI and energy resilience are creating a North-South divide in Asian markets](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/goldman-sachs-on-north-versus-south-asian-stocks.html)
4. Forbes — [Goldman Sachs CEO Says Fears Of Mass Unemployment From AI Are ‘Overblown’](https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/05/22/goldman-sachs-ceo-says-fears-of-mass-unemployment-from-ai-are-overblown/)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Goldman Sachs sees AI and energy split driving North‑South Asian", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/290d49ac-4e0a-4d31-af10-5ca208616238