# Plan B stock‑to‑flow model predicts $306,984 Bitcoin price by 2024

**Published:** 2026-07-08T19:57:13.627Z  
**Topic:** Stock To Flow  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/2604475c-092b-467c-9340-1eacb30a5ce3

Plan B’s S2F model forecasts Bitcoin at $306,984 by Dec 2024, up from $78,280 in 2022. Learn the assumptions, criticism, and what to watch next.

Bitcoin’s stock‑to‑flow (S2F) model, created by the anonymous analyst “Plan B,” projects the cryptocurrency’s price at $306,984 by the end of 2024 – a more than three‑fold rise from its 2022 forecast of $78,280 [1]. The estimate hinges on Bitcoin’s decreasing issuance flow after each halving, a factor that the model treats as the primary driver of long‑term value.

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Model target (2022) | $78,280 |
| Model target (2023) | $81,956 |
| Model target (2024) | $306,984 |
| Key driver | Declining “flow” from Bitcoin halving events |

## How the S2F model works  
The S2F ratio is calculated by dividing the existing stock of an asset by its annual production flow. For Bitcoin, “stock” is the total mined supply, while “flow” is the new coins created each year through mining [1]. Because Bitcoin’s protocol halves the block reward roughly every four years, the flow shrinks, raising the S2F ratio and, according to the model, its scarcity‑derived price [1]. Plan B applied this framework to 111 data points from 2009‑2019, fitting a linear regression that showed a strong correlation between the S2F ratio and Bitcoin’s market price [2].

## Criticisms and limits  
Critics argue the model over‑emphasises supply and ignores demand‑side dynamics, noting that price forecasts have diverged from actual market levels as Bitcoin’s price fell far below the S2F curve in recent months [1]. They also point out that the model relies heavily on historical data and assumes a stable relationship between scarcity and price, which may not hold during “black‑swan” events or shifts in investor sentiment [1].

## What to watch  
- **Bitcoin halving schedule** – The next halving, expected in 2024, will cut the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, further reducing flow.  
- **Price levels near S2F targets** – Watch for Bitcoin approaching $80 k (2023 target) and $300 k (2024 target) as potential test points of the model’s relevance.  
- **On‑chain activity** – Large‑wallet (whale) movements or changes in miner revenue could signal supply‑side stress that would affect the S2F ratio.

The S2F model remains a widely cited, yet contested, tool for framing Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative. Its stark price forecasts highlight how the protocol’s built‑in supply constraints can shape long‑term expectations, even as market participants debate whether scarcity alone can explain Bitcoin’s valuation.

## Sources
1. Ccn — [A Beginner’s Guide To The Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model - CCN.com](https://www.ccn.com/education/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model/)
2. Coinbureau — [Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow Model on Bitcoin: Beginner's Guide](https://coinbureau.com/trading/stock-to-flow-bitcoin)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Plan B stock‑to‑flow model predicts $306,984 Bitcoin price by 2024", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/2604475c-092b-467c-9340-1eacb30a5ce3