# Gold stalls below $4,100 as USD rebounds and Fed hike odds rise

**Published:** 2026-07-31T07:58:36.473Z  
**Topic:** Gold  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/2019fcfc-4345-4063-9c9e-0a456c515aa0

Gold slips under $4,100 amid a stronger dollar and rising Fed hike odds, with RSI near 49 and key support at $4,073.

Gold fell to $4,082.83 on Friday, snapping a brief rally above $4,100 but keeping the metal on track for a four‑month losing streak as sellers reclaimed control amid a firmer U.S. dollar and higher odds of a July Fed rate hike.  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Spot price | $4,082.83 |
| Daily RSI | 48.3 (below 50) |
| USD position | Near three‑week highs |
| Fed hike probability | 38% for a 25 bps increase (up from 16% a week ago) |

## Dollar strength and Fed expectations  
The greenback rebounded from six‑week lows after fresh U.S.–Iran tensions and a mixed batch of U.S. macro data, lifting the dollar to three‑week highs. Market pricing now shows a 38% chance of a 25‑basis‑point Fed hike at the July meeting, up from 16% a week earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. This hawkish tilt has bolstered short‑term Treasury yields, pulling demand away from non‑yielding assets like gold.  

## Technical picture and near‑term bias  
On the daily chart, gold sits below its 21‑day simple moving average at $4,073.95, with the 50‑day SMA at $4,185.76 forming the nearest resistance. The Relative Strength Index sits at 48.3, indicating muted upside momentum. A close above the 50‑day SMA would be needed to ease bearish pressure, while a break beneath the 21‑day SMA could expose lower support levels.  

## Market backdrop and risk factors  
Beyond the dollar’s resurgence, gold is pressured by disappointing Chinese July business PMI data and heightened caution ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. A potential hawkish stance from the BoJ could revive yen buying, weakening the dollar and offering a tailwind for gold, but escalating Middle‑East hostilities would likely reinforce dollar safe‑haven demand, further suppressing the metal.  

## What to watch  
- **Fed meeting (July 31)** – A confirmed rate hike or pause will shape dollar strength and gold’s direction.  
- **Key technical levels** – $4,073.95 (21‑day SMA support) and $4,185.76 (50‑day SMA resistance).  
- **BoJ policy outcome** – A hawkish hold could shift risk sentiment and impact gold’s upside potential.  

Gold’s inability to sustain above $4,100 underscores the dominance of dollar‑driven risk aversion, leaving the metal vulnerable unless a shift in monetary policy or geopolitical risk alters the balance.

## Sources
1. The Forex Market — [Gold Forecast: Looks to snap four-month losing streak but sellers refuse to give...](https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-forecast-looks-to-snap-four-month-losing-streak-but-sellers-refuse-to-give-up-202607310226)
2. FXStreet — [Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks vulnerable as focus shifts to the Fed meeting](https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-looks-vulnerable-as-focus-shifts-to-the-fed-meeting-202607280229)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Gold stalls below $4,100 as USD rebounds and Fed hike odds rise", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/2019fcfc-4345-4063-9c9e-0a456c515aa0