# Bitcoin ETFs likely to mirror gold ETF cycles, analyst says

**Published:** 2026-07-18T20:44:07.083Z  
**Topic:** Gold  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/1a2e32f8-53d3-4eed-a3ec-f838cf675504

Bitcoin ETFs may follow gold’s 22‑year boom‑and‑bust pattern, with assets around $60 bn after a brief $100 bn peak, prompting investors to watch inflow trends

Bitcoin ETFs could trace the same volatile trajectory as gold ETFs, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) hovering near $60 bn in assets after briefly topping $100 bn during Bitcoin’s October peak—a pattern Bloomberg analyst Eric Balc hunas likens to the historic rise, drawdown, and recovery of the SPDR Gold Shares fund [1][2].  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| IBIT assets | ~ $60 bn (down from $100 bn peak) |
| Bitcoin YTD change | –30 % |
| Bitcoin vs. October high | –50 % |
| Gold YTD change | –7 % (up 19 % over 12 mo) |
| Recent inflows | First net inflow week since early May |

## Structural parallels to gold ETFs  
Balchunas points to a shared structural trait: both Bitcoin and gold ETFs are wrappers around non‑yielding assets, meaning performance is driven by investor sentiment rather than cash flow, coupons, or government backing. This “fickle demand” can generate rapid price spikes followed by prolonged stagnation, as seen in gold ETFs over the past two decades. GLD’s assets have swung from a high of roughly $76 bn to lows near $22 bn, then back up toward $190 bn, illustrating the cyclical nature of institutional demand [2].  

## Market reaction and sentiment shift  
Bitcoin’s price is down about 30 % year‑to‑date and roughly 50 % from its October record, while gold sits near $4,000 an ounce, down 7 % YTD but still 19 % higher over the past 12 months. Despite the price weakness, spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recorded their first week of net inflows since early May, suggesting that investor sentiment may be stabilizing after the recent pullback [1].  

## Decoupling from tech stocks  
Analyst Joao Wedson notes that Bitcoin’s correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV) has unraveled, a shift he views as positive for the crypto asset’s independence from traditional market dynamics. He warns that a future crypto bull market could surprise analysts who continue to apply conventional market correlations to Bitcoin’s price behavior [1].

## Institutional adoption outlook  
Gold ETFs have benefited from decades of institutional participation, including pension funds and wealth managers. Bitcoin ETFs are still in the early stages of such adoption, with regulatory clarity and global rollout remaining key drivers. Balchunas cautions that while long‑term adoption may rise, investors should expect volatility as demand arrives in waves rather than a steady stream [2].

## What to watch  
- Upcoming ETF inflow data releases, which could signal whether the “fickle demand” pattern is intensifying.  
- Regulatory developments or announcements from major asset managers regarding new Bitcoin‑related products.  
- Asset‑level thresholds for IBIT and other Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., crossing the $80 bn mark) that may trigger renewed market attention.  

The comparison to gold ETFs underscores that Bitcoin ETFs may experience spectacular gains punctuated by painful drawdowns, testing investor patience while offering a potential long‑term upward trajectory if institutional demand solidifies. The open question remains whether the emerging decoupling from traditional equities will sustain a distinct crypto market cycle or simply reflect broader market volatility.

## Sources
1. Benzinga — [Bitcoin Breaks Tech Stocks Correlation: Will BTC Now Follow in Gold's Footsteps? - Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/26/07/60538851/bitcoin-breaks-tech-stocks-correlation-will-btc-now-follow-in-golds-footsteps)
2. Tronweekly — [Bitcoin ETFs Could Follow Gold ETF Cycles Over 22 Years Strong](https://www.tronweekly.com/bitcoin-etfs-could-follow-gold-etf-cycles-over/)
3. Crypto-economy — [Eric Balchunas says Bitcoin ETFs mirror gold’s boom‑and‑bust trajectory today - Crypto Economy](https://crypto-economy.com/eric-balchunas-says-bitcoin-etfs-mirror-golds-boom-and-bust-trajectory-today/)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Bitcoin ETFs likely to mirror gold ETF cycles, analyst says", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/1a2e32f8-53d3-4eed-a3ec-f838cf675504