# Gold steadies above $4,000 after US PCE data eases rate‑hike odds

**Published:** 2026-06-26T15:34:09.468Z  
**Topic:** Gold  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/19de1929-bfb8-41ca-a625-ec6526a06978

Gold holds near $4,012 per ounce as May PCE matches forecasts, pushing September Fed hike odds down to 63% and easing dollar and yield pressure.

Spot gold was trading around $4,012 an ounce on June 25, up 0.36% on the session, after the U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report came in line with expectations and trimmed the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from 68% to 63% [2].

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Gold price | $4,012/oz (+0.36%) |
| May PCE MoM | 0.4% (vs. 0.5% forecast) |
| Fed hike odds (Sept) | 63% (down from 68%) |
| 10‑yr Treasury yield | ~4.4% (steady) |
| USD index | 101.64 (near one‑year high) |

## Inflation data and market reaction  
The headline PCE rose 0.4% month‑on‑month, matching the consensus and falling short of the 0.5% forecast, while the core PCE was also in line at 0.3% [1]. The modest print left the Fed’s policy stance largely unchanged—its target range remained 3.50%‑3.75% after the June 17 meeting—but it shifted projections toward at least one more hike in 2026, keeping real‑rate expectations elevated [1]. The softer inflation number eased pressure on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, which hovered near the 4.4% area, allowing gold to recover from a four‑session sell‑off [1].

## Technical backdrop and broader assets  
Gold’s price action stayed above the $4,000 support level, a key battleground identified by analysts, while the next resistance sits near $4,023‑$4,090, with a longer‑term target around $4,357 [1]. Silver mirrored the move, trading near $58.13 an ounce, up 1.44% [1]. In equities, Nasdaq‑100 futures rose 2.3% and S&P 500 futures 0.8%, reflecting optimism that the Fed may not need to tighten aggressively [1]. Oil prices slipped, with Brent at $72.24 a barrel, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalized, removing some of the safe‑haven premium that had supported gold [1].

## What to watch  
- Upcoming U.S. CPI release (scheduled for early July) – a hotter reading could revive near‑term rate‑hike expectations.  
- Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting (July 31) – any shift in the dot‑plot or forward guidance could move real rates and impact gold.  
- The 10‑year Treasury yield crossing 4.5% – higher yields would increase the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like gold.

Gold’s hold above $4,000 shows that the market is still balancing inflation‑driven rate‑hike risk against a still‑elevated dollar. The next data points will determine whether the metal can break its bearish bias or slide back toward the $3,900 support zone.

## Sources
1. Kitco — [Gold steadies above $4,000 as Fed hike odds reset... | Kitco News](https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-25/gold-steadies-above-4000-fed-hike-odds-reset-markets-kitco-am-report)
2. Crypto Briefing — [Gold steadies near $4,000 as US inflation data eases rate-hike bets](https://cryptobriefing.com/gold-steadies-4000-us-inflation-rate-hike/)
3. Tradingkey — [Gold Price Forecast: PCE Data Weakens Fed Rate Hike Expectations...](https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/commodities/metal/261993269-gold-price-forecast-pce-data-weaken-fed-rate-hike-expectations-gold-price-stand-4000-tradingkey)
4. Fxstreet — [Gold holds above $4,000 as US PCE data cools near-term Fed...](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-above-4-000-as-us-pce-data-cools-near-term-fed-rate-hike-bets-202606261156)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Gold steadies above $4,000 after US PCE data eases rate‑hike odds", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/19de1929-bfb8-41ca-a625-ec6526a06978