# Fed meeting and big‑tech earnings dominate Wall Street focus this week

**Published:** 2026-07-28T08:28:27.678Z  
**Topic:** S P 500  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/1863c20b-35a7-48c2-9ee1-a01437d91c87

Fed hike odds rise to 36% and nine S&P 500 earnings, including four Magnificent Seven names, set market tone; see key levels to watch.

The probability of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate hike jumped to roughly 36% on Friday, up from 13% a week earlier, while the S&P 500 opened at 7,464.23, up 0.7% [1].  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Fed hike odds | 36% (up from 13% a week ago) |
| S&P 500 opening | 7,464.23 (+0.7%) |
| Dow Jones opening | 52,539.65 (+1.14%) |
| Nasdaq 100 opening | 28,362.56 (+0.83%) |

## Fed meeting sets the week’s tone  
The market’s first test arrives on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting. Traders expect rates to stay unchanged after a cooler‑than‑expected June inflation report, but the CME FedWatch tool shows a near‑36% chance of a 25‑bp hike, a sharp rise from the 13% probability a week earlier [1]. NYSE insider Jay Woods says the Fed Chair’s press conference, especially any dissenting votes, will “lead the path for the rest of the week” [2]. A surprise hike could tighten financing conditions for the tech sector, which is already under pressure from ballooning capital‑expenditure plans.

## Big‑tech earnings under the AI microscope  
Around one‑third of the S&P 500 will report earnings this week, including nine Dow components and four of the “Magnificent Seven”: Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon [2]. Woods highlighted Microsoft and Meta’s capex levels, noting both stocks sit near their 200‑day moving averages—levels he deems “critical” for a healthy rebound [2]. Last week, Alphabet and Tesla saw share drops after reporting higher‑than‑expected capex guidance, underscoring investor sensitivity to AI‑related spending [1]. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF is down 3% year‑to‑date, reflecting broader market concerns about whether hyperscalers can sustain AI‑driven growth [1].

## Other stocks in the spotlight  
Beyond the tech giants, Woods flagged three names that could move the market: Coinbase, as a proxy for Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $65,000; Starbucks, which he sees a buying opportunity in as its turnaround gains momentum; and Intercontinental Exchange, which has risen over 20% from its June low and may test a $138‑$140 entry range [2].

## What to watch  
- **Fed minutes** from the June meeting for any signs of dissent or a shift in policy tone [5].  
- **Capex guidance** from Microsoft and Meta; a move above the 200‑day average could signal renewed AI demand.  
- **Bitcoin price** relative to the $65,000 threshold, which will influence Coinbase’s trajectory [2].

The heightened probability of a rate hike and the earnings of AI‑heavy firms together create a volatile backdrop. Market participants will be gauging whether the Fed’s stance and tech spending trends align, a dynamic that could set the direction for equities, bonds and the dollar in the weeks ahead.

## Sources
1. Business Insider — [Stock Market Outlook: Brace for Volatility on Fed Meeting, Big Tech...](https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-this-week-fed-meeting-big-tech-earnings-2026-7)
2. CNBC — [Big earnings and a Fed meeting: What NYSE insider Jay Woods is watching this week](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/big-earnings-and-a-fed-meetings-what-nyse-insider-jay-woods-is-watching-this-week.html)
3. CNBC — [A streaming stock risks diving below its key support level this week. Here's what else Jay Woods is watching](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/netflix-risks-diving-below-key-support-level-this-week-jay-woods-says.html)
4. CNBC — [cnbc.com/2025/09/02/nyse-insider-jay-woods-on-the-three-stocks...](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/02/nyse-insider-jay-woods-on-the-three-stocks-pros-are-watching-the-most-this-week.html)
5. CNBC — [Earnings and Fed minutes: What Jay Woods is watching](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/06/earnings-and-fed-minutes-what-jay-woods-is-watching.html)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Fed meeting and big‑tech earnings dominate Wall Street focus this week", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/1863c20b-35a7-48c2-9ee1-a01437d91c87