# EUR/USD slides toward 1.1560 as Fed cut odds rise and Eurozone data

**Published:** 2026-08-13T13:11:59.135Z  
**Topic:** Neutrl USD  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/1825b692-adc3-4a9e-9ec4-0707ca4f12c1

EUR/USD falls to 1.1560, 0.94% monthly gain fades, Fed cut odds hit 87% – see key levels and upcoming data that could steer the pair.

The euro slipped to 1.1560 on Friday, erasing most of the 0.94% gain recorded over the past month as traders priced in a sharp rise in expectations for a U.S. rate cut and weaker Eurozone data [3].

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | 1.1560 |
| 24‑h change | –0.02% |
| Key level | 1.1550 support |
| Catalyst | Fed cut odds up to 87% and German data miss |

## Market backdrop and price action  
The EUR/USD pair had risen to 1.1528 on August 13, 2026, up 0.02% from the prior session, and was up 0.94% over the previous month [1]. However, a retreat to 1.1560 reversed those gains as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) steadied around 99.66 and market participants priced an 87% probability of a 25‑basis‑point Fed cut at the December FOMC meeting—up from 31% a week earlier [3]. The euro’s weakness was compounded by disappointing German retail sales (‑0.3% MoM versus a +0.2% forecast) and tepid employment numbers (only 1,000 jobs added versus an expected 5,000) [3].

## Eurozone fundamentals and outlook  
Eurozone inflation remained elevated at 2.9% in July, with market‑based inflation expectations for the next year around 2.4%, above the ECB’s 2% target [1]. The region’s economy grew 0.4% in Q2—the strongest pace since early 2025—but analysts expect growth to moderate before picking up again [1]. These mixed signals have led many to anticipate another 25‑basis‑point ECB hike in September [1]. Meanwhile, the euro’s longer‑term trajectory is projected at 1.16 by the end of the current quarter and 1.18 in twelve months, according to Trading Economics’ macro model [1].

## Technical picture  
Technical commentary notes that the pair is testing the 1.1550–1.1560 support zone after an earlier upthrust into the 1.1555–1.1560 resistance area [2]. A break below 1.1550 could open the path to lower supports around 1.1510, while a sustained hold above 1.1560 may allow a retest of the 1.1580 supply zone [2].

## What to watch
- **1.1550 support** – a decisive break could push the pair toward the 1.1510 level.  
- **German HICP data (13:00 GMT)** – a higher‑than‑expected inflation reading may bolster the euro.  
- **Fed cut probability** – any shift in the CME FedWatch odds before the December meeting could reverse the current bias.

The euro’s slide underscores the tug‑of‑war between a weakening Eurozone outlook and growing expectations of U.S. monetary easing. How the pair reacts to upcoming German inflation data and any change in Fed cut expectations will determine whether the euro can reclaim its recent highs or continue its descent toward lower support.

## Sources
1. Tradingeconomics — [Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate - EUR/USD - Quote - Chart - Historical...](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency)
2. Tradingview — [EUR USD Chart — Euro to Dollar Rate — TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/)
3. Tradingnews — [EUR/USD Price Forecast - Euro to Dollar Slides to 1.1560 as German...](https://www.tradingnews.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-eur-usd-drops-toward-11550)

---
Cite as: TrendWatcher, "EUR/USD slides toward 1.1560 as Fed cut odds rise and Eurozone data", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/1825b692-adc3-4a9e-9ec4-0707ca4f12c1