# Plan B predicts Bitcoin $500,000 average price in 2024‑2028 halving

**Published:** 2026-08-01T08:08:20.666Z  
**Topic:** Stock To Flow  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/12fbc893-715d-4b7a-a9a6-7757513b5e81

Plan B’s Stock‑to‑Flow model forecasts Bitcoin averaging $500,000 through the 2024‑2028 halving period as BTC trades around $67,300, offering a concrete target

Bitcoin is trading at $67,334, down about 1% in the last 24 hours, while Plan B – creator of the Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) model – reaffirmed his forecast that Bitcoin will average $500,000 over the 2024‑2028 halving cycle [1]. The prediction comes as the asset struggles to reclaim the $70,000 psychological barrier, underscoring the gap between current market levels and the model’s long‑term scarcity target.

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | $67,334 |
| 24‑h change | –1% |
| Weekly change | +0.6% |
| Forecast catalyst | Halving‑driven scarcity (S2F model) |

## Model basis and recent performance  
Plan B’s S2F framework values Bitcoin by comparing its existing supply (“stock”) to the rate of new issuance (“flow”). Each halving cuts the block reward in half, raising the stock‑to‑flow ratio and historically coinciding with strong price appreciation. In the previous 2020‑2024 cycle, the model projected an average near $55,000; actual average settled around $34,000, a variance Plan B deems acceptable [1]. For the current cycle, he cites a broad $250,000‑$1 million range, with $500,000 as the midpoint target.  

## Market context and competing forecasts  
Bitcoin’s price sits well below the $70,000 level it tested in early March and far from the $100,000 milestone that other analysts, including Plan B himself, expect by the end of 2024 [4]. A separate Plan B tweet from April 2024 projected $300,000 by 2025 and $100,000 by December 2024, framing the $500,000 figure as an average rather than a peak [3]. These forecasts align with broader market sentiment that spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional inflows could act as catalysts, though short‑term volatility remains high amid geopolitical tensions and shifting ETF flows [1].

## On‑chain and tokenomics backdrop  
The halving event, scheduled for 2024, will reduce new Bitcoin issuance from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC, effectively halving the “flow” component of the S2F ratio. This scarcity boost is central to Plan B’s outlook, as the model predicts price moves around halving dates based on historical patterns. No specific unlock schedules or large‑wallet movements were detailed in the sources, but the reduced supply rate is a quantifiable driver of the $500,000 target.

## What to watch  
- **Price thresholds:** $70,000 resistance and $60,000 support as near‑term benchmarks.  
- **Halving date:** The 2024 halving (exact date not specified) that will halve block rewards.  
- **ETF activity:** Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which analysts cite as potential price catalysts for 2024 [3].

Plan B’s $500,000 average price underscores the long‑term scarcity thesis that drives many bullish models, yet the current market price remains over 30% below that target, highlighting the uncertainty of translating model averages into near‑term price action.

## Sources
1. Cryptonews — [Crypto expert Plan B predicts Bitcoin will hit $500,000 during this...](https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/32527418/)
2. Forbes — [Billionaire Mark Cuban Suddenly Flips On Bitcoin As Massive Crash Fear Hits Price](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/05/24/billionaire-mark-cuban-suddenly-flips-on-bitcoin-as-massive-crash-fear-hits-price/)
3. Cryptonews — [Bitcoin Price to $300K? Plan B's Bold Forecast](https://cryptonews.com/news/popular-analyst-plan-b-predicts-bitcoin-price-to-surpass-300000-in-2025-heres-how/)
4. Binance — [Plan B Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit... | Wendy 🇻🇳 on Binance Square](https://www.binance.com/en-AE/square/post/11946260043618)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "Plan B predicts Bitcoin $500,000 average price in 2024‑2028 halving", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/12fbc893-715d-4b7a-a9a6-7757513b5e81