# SpaceX valuation cut by Morningstar ahead of $75 bn IPO

**Published:** 2026-07-12T00:05:02.759Z  
**Topic:** Stock Market  
**Sentiment:** neutral  
**Publisher:** TrendWatcher — https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/04453444-16a7-454e-a3bb-0b3b96e0656f

Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 bn, about 48% below the low end of the $1.5‑2 tn market range, signaling caution before the June IPO.

SpaceX’s IPO filing this month targets a $75 billion raise at a $1.5‑$2 trillion valuation, but Morningstar’s equity analysts peg the company’s fair value at $780 billion – roughly 48% lower than the most conservative market estimate – raising questions about pricing and near‑term share‑price pressure【1】.  

| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| IPO size | $75 bn |
| Market valuation range | $1.5‑$2 tn |
| Morningstar fair‑value estimate | $780 bn (‑48% vs. low end) |
| Starlink medium‑term profit driver | Established launch infrastructure |

## Morningstar’s valuation methodology  
Morningstar’s analysts, Nicolas Owens and Suryansh Sharma, built a cash‑flow model that assumes SpaceX’s growth projects – notably orbital computing and AI data‑center services – are “highly uncertain” in terms of timing and financial outcomes【1】. Their most optimistic scenario gives SpaceX a 7% chance of supporting 21% of global AI compute demand, while the most likely outcome projects only 4% support by 2040. The valuation gap stems from these low‑probability assumptions and a “narrow” moat despite the company’s $10 bn‑plus spend on its Grok AI chatbot【1】.

## Market implications for the IPO  
The analysts warn that the IPO could see an initial price bump, but subsequent tranches of insider stock slated for sale after lock‑up periods may exert “selling pressure” on the shares【1】. This suggests that investors seeking “margin of safety” might wait for later offerings rather than the primary issue. The valuation disparity also signals that the market’s $1.5‑$2 tn range may be overly optimistic given the firm’s unproven revenue streams beyond Starlink.

## What to watch  
- **IPO pricing and allocation** – final share price and the proportion of shares offered to the public versus insiders.  
- **Lock‑up expirations** – dates when insider shares become tradable, potentially adding supply pressure.  
- **Progress on orbital data‑center projects** – any milestones that could shift the probability of achieving the 21% compute‑share target.  

Morningstar’s stark downgrade underscores the uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s non‑launch revenue streams and suggests that the IPO’s pricing will be a key barometer for how the market reconciles growth ambitions with realistic cash‑flow expectations.

## Sources
1. Business Insider — [Morningstar says SpaceX should be valued nearly 50% lower than what the market is estimating](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-ipo-valuation-starlink-grok-elon-musk-ai-morningstar-spcx-2026-6)
2. Morningstar — [LONDON MARKET EARLY CALL: FTSE 100 seen flat as Iran talks continue](https://www.morningstar.com/news/alliance-news/1780465772580370400/london-market-early-call-ftse-100-seen-flat-as-iran-talks-continue)
3. Morningstar — [Duck Creek Expands Global Platform Strategy with Multi-Country Layer Enhancements and Commitment to Support the London Market](https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260610cg79642/duck-creek-expands-global-platform-strategy-with-multi-country-layer-enhancements-and-commitment-to-support-the-london-market)

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Cite as: TrendWatcher, "SpaceX valuation cut by Morningstar ahead of $75 bn IPO", https://www.trendwatcher.in/article/04453444-16a7-454e-a3bb-0b3b96e0656f