Tesla Robotaxi Fleet Shrinks as Waymo Expands Operations

Tesla’s unsupervised robotaxi fleet has entered a period of contraction, with the total number of active vehicles across its ride-hailing operations falling to just 34 [1]. This decline marks a reversal from brief growth observed in April, leaving the company’s Texas-based fleet at less than one-tenth the size of rival Waymo’s operations [1].

Key takeaways

• Tesla’s total active ride-hailing fleet, including supervised vehicles in the Bay Area, has dropped to 34, down from 165 reported in April [1].
• The number of active unsupervised robotaxis in Texas has fallen to 20, with 14 in Austin, 3 in Dallas, and 3 in Houston [1].
• Waymo currently operates approximately 3,000 robotaxis across multiple U.S. cities, with plans to expand into Atlanta, Miami, and Washington, D.C. [1].
• Tesla CEO Elon Musk has indicated that the company is waiting for the FSD v15 software update before pursuing an aggressive expansion of the fleet [1].

A Shift in Deployment Strategy

The recent reduction in vehicle counts follows a period of stagnation for the program, which launched its first pilot in Austin last June [2]. While Tesla reported a cumulative total of 25 unsupervised vehicles in late April, that figure has since retreated to 20 active units [1]. The Bay Area, which previously accounted for the majority of Tesla’s ride-hailing activity with 107 active vehicles in April, has seen its presence collapse to just 9 active cars [1]. These Bay Area vehicles operate with safety drivers under California’s Transportation Charter-Party permit, distinguishing them from the unsupervised units in Texas [1].

Industry observers suggest that safety remains the primary bottleneck for the program [1]. Reports indicate that Tesla’s unsupervised vehicles have experienced a crash rate roughly four times higher than that of human drivers [1]. Consequently, the company appears to be prioritizing safety by pulling vehicles from the road rather than scaling up, a move that contrasts sharply with Waymo’s trajectory [1]. While Tesla’s fleet has shrunk, Waymo is actively increasing its capacity, including the construction of a new manufacturing facility in Mesa, Arizona, intended to produce over 2,000 additional vehicles [1].

Why it matters

The widening gap between Tesla and Waymo highlights the significant challenges Tesla faces in achieving its autonomous driving goals. Although Musk has previously projected that the robotaxi service would reach 50% of the U.S. population by the end of 2025, the current data suggests the program is in a state of retrenchment [2]. The company’s future scaling efforts are now tied to the performance of the upcoming FSD v15 software update, with expectations for progress pushed toward late 2026 or early 2027 [1]. Until these technical hurdles are cleared, the robotaxi program remains a limited pilot rather than the large-scale commercial service initially envisioned for investors [1].