Ethereum Price Forecast

Ethereum has extended its 30-day decline to over 23% despite a drop in bearish positioning in derivatives, with ETH ETFs on track to record seven consecutive weeks of outflows and their largest weekly decline since January [1]. The top altcoin has declined by 6.7% on the weekly timeframe, stretching its 30-day loss to 23.5%, with a key price level investors continue to watch being the Realized Price Lower Band, which suggests ETH could drop by nearly 30% before forming a bottom.

Ethereum's Price Movement

Ethereum trades below $1,600 on Friday following sustained risk-off sentiment across the crypto market, with bearish positioning in Ethereum derivatives easing over the past three weeks, following ETH's sharp decline from above $2,000 to near $1,560 [1]. The move is evident in the Ethereum Net Taker Volume, which has gradually contracted from negative territory over the period, indicating that pressure from short traders has reduced after a majority of their positions became profitable following the decline. ETH futures also appear to have undergone a partial reset after the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) fell from 1.11 to 0.85 in the past three weeks, potentially stabilizing the market and reducing leverage risk [1].

Market Context and Outlook

Ethereum's price is down roughly 55-65% from its all-time high near $4,950 set in August 2025, and it has spent the better part of a year grinding lower, yet by almost every fundamental measure, the network has never been in better shape, with more ether staked than ever, more institutional money flowing into Ethereum products, and corporate treasuries accumulating it at a scale that did not exist a year ago [2]. The $1,668 line, which is Ethereum's 200-day moving average, has historically divided its bull markets from its bear markets, and holding above it keeps a recovery toward $2,300 to $3,000 alive, while losing the $1,580 to $1,600 floor opens a path toward a deep $1,039 to $603 accumulation zone [2].

What to Watch

• The $1,524 support level, which is a key price level investors continue to watch
• The 200-day moving average near $1,668, which has historically divided Ethereum's bull markets from its bear markets
• The potential catalysts that could flip the line, including the Glamsterdam upgrade and a reversal in ETF and treasury flows

The real significance of Ethereum's current price movement lies in its potential to break below the $1,580 level, which could open a path toward a deep accumulation zone, or to hold above the $1,668 line, which could keep a recovery toward $2,300 to $3,000 alive. The outcome will depend on the interplay between risk-off sentiment, ETF outflows, and the network's strong fundamentals.