Nvidia Q1 FY2027 earnings preview expects $78.75 billion revenue

Nvidia is slated to report FY2027 Q1 revenue of $78.75 billion on May 20, 2026, almost double the same quarter a year ago, with data‑center chips shouldering the surge [1]. The data‑center segment alone is projected at $72.85 billion, up from $39.11 billion a year earlier, and $60.53 billion of that is expected to come from Blackwell GPU shipments to hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta [1].

The Blackwell architecture now powers the bulk of Nvidia’s compute revenue, but supply constraints remain the chief risk, according to CEO Jensen Huang’s March GTC remarks that anticipate $1 trillion in cumulative sales from the Grace‑Blackwell and Vera Rubin lines through 2027 [1]. Huang also warned that Nvidia’s market share in China has collapsed to zero after a failed export push, a factor built into the $78 billion guidance that assumes no data‑center revenue from the country [1]. Any positive development on China‑related export rules could lift the outlook, while tighter restrictions would add a fresh headwind.

Competition is sharpening. Amazon’s custom Trainium chips now generate over $20 billion in annual AI‑chip revenue, backed by multi‑gigawatt deals with OpenAI and Anthropic, while Google’s new TPU 8i and 8t chips have secured similar multi‑generation contracts [1]. AMD is preparing a rack‑scale server system that could offer an alternative to Nvidia’s GPUs, and Cerebras, fresh from its IPO, is promoting a wafer‑scale processor that it claims outperforms GPUs on certain tasks [1]. None of these rivals yet match Nvidia’s CUDA software ecosystem, but they are systematically targeting the same hyperscaler customers.

Investors will watch not just the headline revenue figure but the Q2 guidance, gross‑margin trajectory and Huang’s comments on Blackwell supply and China policy. A Q2 outlook above $88 billion would break Nvidia’s pattern of stock declines after earnings beats and could provide a clear catalyst for the market. The real question is whether Nvidia can keep its supply chain flowing and its software moat intact as rivals scale up and geopolitical pressures mount.