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OpenAI pushes its IPO back to 2027; Kalshi traders give a 59% probability of an announcement by March 1 2027 amid $1 trillion valuation aims and tech‑stock
OpenAI has moved its anticipated initial public offering from 2026 to 2027, and prediction‑market traders now assign a 59% chance that the company will formally announce the IPO by March 1 2027—a shift that reflects heightened market uncertainty and the firm’s insistence on a $1 trillion valuation target【2】.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Company | OpenAI |
| Target valuation | $1 trillion (CEO Altman’s floor) |
| New IPO window | 2027 (delay from 2026) |
| Kalshi probability (by Mar 1 2027) | 59% |
| 2023 revenue | $13 billion (still loss‑making) |
OpenAI filed a confidential S‑1 on June 8, but the filing notes that the timing “remains flexible,” allowing the firm to wait for more stable market conditions【1】. The delay follows a New York Times report linking the move to recent turbulence in tech stocks and the weak aftermarket performance of SpaceX, whose shares fell about 24% after an initial 19% premium post‑IPO【1】【2】. Traders on Kalshi consider an IPO “confirmed” only when the SEC declares the S‑1 effective, a price is set, or a ticker is assigned, and they now see a 73% chance of an announcement by June 2027, down from earlier expectations of a 2026 debut【2】.
OpenAI’s last private‑market valuation was $852 billion after a $122 billion funding round earlier this year, yet CEO Sam Altman is reportedly unwilling to accept a public market price below $1 trillion【1】【3】. Advisors warn that current market sentiment may force a lower valuation, but Altman has labeled any reduction as a “non‑starter.” The firm also posted $13 billion in revenue last year, but continues to incur heavy losses, underscoring the challenge of justifying a trillion‑dollar float【3】. Meanwhile, rival Anthropic has quietly filed for its own IPO, with Kalshi traders assigning a 70% chance of an announcement by December, adding competitive pressure to the AI‑stock landscape【2】.
The delay highlights the tension between lofty valuation ambitions and a market that is still gauging appetite for mega‑cap AI offerings. Whether OpenAI can secure a trillion‑dollar float when it finally goes public remains an open question that will shape the next wave of AI‑sector financing.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 5 outlets · Jun 28, 2026 · How we report
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