XRP Near $1.3 Support as Whale Activity Slows and Analysts Spot

XRP traded at $1.34 on Saturday, extending a recovery that began on Thursday after the token bounced from a key multi‑month support zone near $1.34 [1]. The rally coincides with a sharp decline in large‑holder activity and a narrowing gap between whale and retail outflows, prompting analysts to debate whether the asset is poised for a breakout.

Key takeaways

• XRP’s price rose 1.97% in the last 24 hours, holding above the $1.30 level [1].
• Large XRP transfers (> $1 million) fell 57% month‑over‑month, from 157 to 67 transactions [1].
• The Binance whale‑vs‑retail spread dropped to 88.3%, the lowest in over two years [2].
• Technical analysis points to a double‑bottom pattern and narrowing Bollinger Bands, which historically precede bullish breakouts [3].
• On‑chain metrics show the MVRV ratio at its lowest since December 2020, indicating deep trader losses that have often preceded recoveries [1].

On‑chain signals and market structure

The recent price lift follows a pronounced shift in on‑chain dynamics. Data from CryptoQuant shows the Binance whale‑vs‑retail spread for XRP fell to 88.3%, a level not seen since May 2024, suggesting that large holders are pulling back from the exchange while retail outflows remain relatively steady [2]. Although whales still dominate outflows, the spread’s decline mirrors past periods that preceded price rallies in early 2025.

At the same time, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric indicates that the average active XRP trader over the past month is sitting on a 47% loss, the deepest reading since December 2020 [1]. Historically, such negative MVRV levels have signaled undervaluation and have often been followed by significant price recoveries.

Technical outlook and analyst commentary

Technical charts show XRP confined to a three‑month range, forming a double‑bottom pattern and exhibiting narrowing Bollinger Bands—both classic precursors to a sharp move upward [3]. Rising RSI and PPO values suggest bullish divergence, reinforcing the breakout hypothesis. Analyst Celal Kucuker notes that XRP continues to respect an ascending channel dating back to 2017, which could allow the token to test $17 if the broader bull market persists [1]. Conversely, DonWEedge cautions that the next move hinges on whether the $1.30 support holds, urging traders to watch for a decisive bounce or break [1].

Why it matters

The convergence of reduced whale activity, a historically low whale‑retail spread, and technical patterns favoring a breakout creates a cautiously optimistic backdrop for XRP. If the token sustains its support above $1.30 and the on‑chain metrics continue to improve, the next price move could determine whether XRP exits its prolonged consolidation and embarks on a higher‑risk, higher‑reward trajectory. Market participants will likely monitor the MVRV trend, whale transfer volumes, and the integrity of the ascending channel for clues about the token’s direction in the coming weeks.