Bitcoin Major Holder Accumulation Stalls Amid Market Weakness

Major Bitcoin holders have shifted from accumulation to a period of distribution, signaling a potential weakening in the asset's structural demand [1]. According to a report from CryptoQuant, this change in behavior mirrors patterns observed during the 2022 bear market and suggests that the current holding structure is deteriorating across key investor cohorts [1].

Key takeaways

• Whale accounts holding between 1,000 and 1,0000 Bitcoin have seen their annual balance growth turn negative, marking the fastest contraction this year [1].
• Bitcoin "dolphins," which include exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries, are experiencing a sharp deceleration in growth [1].
• Approximately 40% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently held at an unrealized loss [1].
• Traders have placed over $500 million in bid liquidity between $72,000 and $70,000 in an attempt to establish a support zone [2].

Shifts in Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment

The decline in accumulation is most pronounced among "whales," whose monthly balance growth has remained flat since February [1]. While "dolphin" cohorts—investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—are still growing on an annual basis, their monthly balance growth has neared zero, with successive lower highs recorded since September 2025 [1]. CryptoQuant notes that these periods of stagnant growth have historically preceded sustained price weakness, as these groups represent the primary source of structural support in the market [1].

This cooling demand coincides with a broader crypto bear market influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds [1]. As of recent trading, the daily Bitcoin trend has turned bearish after the asset lost support at $74,800, leading to a pattern of lower highs and lower lows [2]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to approximately 33, its lowest level since late February, indicating that sellers currently maintain control over short-term price action [2].

Liquidity Zones and Future Outlook

Despite the bearish sentiment, traders are attempting to stabilize the price near the $70,000 level. Order-book data reveals that dip buyers have placed 6,235 BTC in bid liquidity between $72,000 and $70,000, worth roughly $443 million at current prices [2]. An additional $69 million in bids is positioned at $68,505, though liquidity thins significantly below that point [2].

Market analysts remain divided on the potential for a recovery. Researcher Tim Sun of HashKey Group suggests that while the absolute bottom could theoretically reach $40,000 to $45,000, a more realistic range for a market bottom may be $55,000 to $60,000, provided that interest rates ease and geopolitical tensions do not escalate [1]. Ultimately, the formation of a solid market bottom and a subsequent recovery depends on a definitive improvement in the broader liquidity environment and a stabilization of interest rates [1].