US Shale Output Growth Limited by Low Well Backlog

U.S. shale producers are facing a record-low backlog of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells, significantly limiting their ability to rapidly increase crude oil output. This situation arises as exports and refinery processing have surged to compensate for supply shortfalls, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. oil inventories [1].

Key takeaways

• U.S. shale producers have a record-low number of drilled-but-uncompleted wells [1].
• This low backlog restricts the speed at which crude output can be increased [1].
• U.S. crude inventories have fallen by 52 million barrels since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran [1].
• The number of DUCs in the Permian Basin has decreased to 540 in May [1].

DUCs: A Shrinking Buffer for Supply Shocks

Drilled-but-uncompleted wells are a critical tool for shale producers, offering a faster route to boost production compared to drilling new wells entirely. DUCs can bring output online in six to nine weeks, whereas new wells take three to nine months [1]. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated approximately 4,972 DUCs in April, the lowest on record since 2013, following 14 consecutive months of decline due to completions [1]. This reduction was partly driven by operators completing existing wells to save costs when oil prices were weaker, around $65 a barrel in 2025 [1]. Completing a previously drilled well costs between $5 million and $6 million, significantly less than the $8 million to $10 million required for drilling and completing a new well [1].

Consultancy Enverus reported an estimated 3,866 DUCs in April, excluding wells drilled over two years ago that are unlikely to be completed [1]. Factors such as energy infrastructure constraints, pipeline connectivity issues, reservoir casing problems, or shifts in priorities following mergers and acquisitions can lead to wells remaining uncompleted [1]. These DUCs are often seen as a "shock absorber" for production fluctuations, but drawing them down for an extended period has consequences [1]. For instance, Diamondback Energy plans to draw down its DUC inventory in the second quarter while also increasing its rig count [1].

Replenishing the Backlog Amidst Rising Activity

Despite the low DUC count, the situation is beginning to shift as oil prices for future months increase. Operators are responding by picking up more rigs to rebuild their DUC inventories [1]. U.S. crude futures for November delivery were trading around $78 a barrel, a level considered sufficient for operators to commit to drilling [1]. Enverus noted a slight increase in the DUC count by May 20, surpassing 4,100 after dipping below 4,000 [1].

This uptick in activity is reflected in the rig count. The U.S. onshore oil rig count reached 425 in the week to May 22, its highest since July 2025, and has risen for four consecutive weeks [1]. Patterson-UTI, a drilling contractor, expects to add five active rigs in the latter half of 2026, ending the year with 100 active rigs [1]. Drilling contractor Precision Drilling also reported an increase in customer discussions about adding rigs starting in the summer [1]. The number of crews performing hydraulic fracturing operations nationwide has also risen to 189, a 21% increase since the start of the year [1].