Harvard economist says learning recession began a decade ago, not

The Education Scorecard, a joint effort by Harvard, Stanford and Dartmouth researchers, finds that U.S. reading scores have fallen in 83 % of schools and math scores in 70 % since 2013, predating the pandemic’s impact [1]. Economist Tom Kane describes COVID‑19 as a “mudslide” that intensified a longer‑standing “learning recession” that began about ten years ago [2].

Key takeaways

• Reading scores declined in 83 % of districts and math scores in 70 % since 2013 [1]
• The pandemic caused a sharp drop (five points in reading, seven in math for 9‑year‑olds) but the trend started earlier [1]
• States that adopted “science of reading” phonics reforms saw reading gains between 2022‑2025 [2]
• Middle‑income districts lag behind low‑ and high‑income districts in post‑pandemic recovery [2]
• Attendance remains a barrier; chronic absenteeism was 23 % in 2024‑25, higher than pre‑pandemic levels [2]

A decade of erosion before COVID

Tom Kane, director of Harvard’s Center for Education Policy Research, explains that around 2013 a combination of policy shifts and cultural changes began eroding student performance [1]. The Obama administration’s waivers to the No Child Left Behind law and the 2015 Every Student Succeeds Act reduced federal test‑based accountability, giving states more leeway to set standards [1]. Simultaneously, smartphone use among teens surged; by 2022, the share of teens online “almost constantly” had roughly doubled since 2014‑15, raising concerns about distraction both in and out of school [1].

Early‑literacy reforms spark modest turnarounds

The report notes that the first signs of a reading recovery emerged in 2025, driven by states that embraced a phonics‑focused “science of reading” approach [2]. Louisiana, Washington D.C., Kentucky, Maryland and Tennessee all reported reading gains after adopting comprehensive early‑literacy reforms, while states that avoided such reforms—Georgia, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Wisconsin—did not improve [2]. Math scores, after a pandemic‑era dip, began to rise as early as 2022, though reading gains remain uneven [2].

Why it matters

Understanding that the learning recession started well before COVID reshapes policy priorities. The Education Scorecard suggests that restoring robust, test‑based accountability and addressing the pervasive influence of smartphones could be as crucial as pandemic recovery efforts. Moreover, the uneven progress across income‑based districts highlights the need for targeted support, especially for middle‑income schools that have received less federal relief [2]. Continued monitoring of attendance and broader adoption of evidence‑based literacy reforms will be key to sustaining any upward trend in student achievement.