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Strategy transferred 411 Bitcoin ($30.3 m) to a Coinbase Prime wallet, pushing Polymarket odds of a year‑end sale to 91% – see the on‑chain signal and its
A 411‑bitcoin transfer (about $30.3 million) landed in a Coinbase Prime wallet on May 29, marking the first direct exchange deposit from Michael Saylor’s Strategy in nearly two years and sparking a jump in market odds that the firm will sell Bitcoin before year‑end【1】.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Transfer size | 411.48 BTC (~$30.3 m) |
| Share of holdings | 0.05 % of Strategy’s 843,738 BTC |
| BTC price (approx.) | $73,600 per coin |
| Market odds of year‑end sale | 91 % (up 68 points) |
On‑chain analytics firm Lookonchain flagged the deposit, which consisted of two roughly equal transfers of 205.3 BTC and 206.2 BTC, preceded by a test transaction of 0.0241 BTC【1】. The rarity of any exchange transfer from Strategy—its last direct move was almost two years earlier—made the modest 0.05 % deposit noteworthy. The catalyst was not a market swing but a policy shift announced on May 5 during Strategy’s Q1 earnings call, where Saylor said the company “will probably sell some Bitcoin to pay a dividend” after years of a “never sell” stance【1】. That comment, coupled with a $12.54 billion Q1 net loss and $1.5 billion annual dividend obligations, prompted traders on Polymarket to raise the probability of a sale to 91 % by the end of 2026【1】.
A 1 % sale of Strategy’s Bitcoin stash would equal roughly 8,437 BTC, or about $621 million at the current $73,600 price—enough to cover several years of dividend payments【1】. The 411 BTC moved today represents only about 5 % of that 1 % threshold, suggesting a “signaling” transfer rather than a panic liquidation. Saylor has reiterated that any sale would be offset by buying twenty bitcoins for each one sold, a ratio he claims would make the net impact “immeasurable”【1】. Nonetheless, the market’s reaction shows that even a tiny on‑chain move can reshape expectations when it follows a strategic policy change.
The deposit underscores that Strategy’s “never sell” era is effectively over; the firm remains a net accumulator but now signals willingness to liquidate if cash is needed. Whether the 411 BTC will stay on Coinbase or be sold will be a key barometer of Saylor’s evolving stance and its ripple effects across the Bitcoin market.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jun 30, 2026 · How we report
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