Paxton Defeats Cornyn, Sets Texas Showdown

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff, securing the party's nomination for the U.S. Senate [2]. The victory, backed by former President Donald Trump, sets up a general election contest against Democratic nominee James Talarico that analysts view as significantly more competitive than expected [1].

Key takeaways

• Ken Paxton won the GOP runoff with 64% of the vote, defeating Sen. John Cornyn [2].
• The Cook Political Report shifted the race rating from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" following Paxton's win [1].
• The Senate race is the second most expensive in the country, with over $108 million spent so far [1].
• Republican turnout in the runoff was lower than in the 2022 primary, while Democrats have shown enthusiasm [1].

A Trump-Endorsed Victory and New Dynamics

Paxton's decisive win, securing 886,010 votes to Cornyn's 501,757, confirmed the former president's influence over the party's voters [2]. In his concession speech, Cornyn did not mention Paxton by name but committed to continuing his work for the nation [1]. The outcome creates a general election matchup that Democrats have long hoped for, as the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1994 [1].

Spending and Polling in the General Election

Following the runoff, the Cook Political Report immediately updated the race status to "Lean Republican," signaling a tighter contest [1]. A