Exxon Mobil warns of record low inventories as Iran‑Hormuz conflict

Exxon Mobil senior vice president Neil Chapman warned that the industry is nearing “unheard‑of inventory levels,” a situation that could trigger a sharp price rise if supplies dwindle further [1]. The warning comes as U.S. and Iranian negotiators work toward a memorandum of understanding that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one‑fifth of global oil trade.

Key takeaways

• Exxon Mobil cites inventory levels that are “really, really low” and could hit critical lows within two to three weeks [1].
• Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said clearing the thousands of vessels stuck in the strait may take months and will require weeks of prioritised shipping decisions [2].
• Brent crude futures hovered around $91 per barrel and U.S. average gasoline prices fell to $4.39, down 17 cents, as markets responded to hopes of a cease‑fire [2].
• President Trump announced on social media that the Hormuz Strait must be opened immediately, with mines to be cleared, and lifted the naval blockade on Iranian ports [3].
• Analysts warn that without a definitive deal, oil markets could swing wildly as early as next week [1].

Negotiations and operational challenges in the Hormuz Strait

American and Iranian diplomats are close to a draft memorandum that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but both sides remain cautious. Chevron’s Mike Wirth told Bloomberg that vessels have been attacked in the strait and that “clearing out the thousands of ships currently stuck” could take months, pending confirmation that the water is free of mines [2]. He emphasized that the sequencing of ship movements—whether bulk freighters, container ships, or allied vessels move first—remains undecided.

President Donald Trump used a social‑media post to demand the immediate reopening of the strait without tolls and to claim that U.S. forces have already detonated many underwater mines, while urging Iran to finish any remaining clearance [3]. The same post announced the lifting of a naval blockade on Iranian ports, marking a shift from earlier statements that the blockade would stay in place until a deal was reached. Iranian state media, however, indicated Tehran had not yet decided whether to accept the latest draft, describing Trump’s remarks as “one‑sided and self‑aggrandizing” [1].

Market reactions and future outlook

The prospect of a deal has already softened oil prices, with Brent crude futures trading near $91 per barrel and the national average gasoline price slipping to $4.39, a 17‑cent decline from the wartime peak [2]. Yet analysts warn that if a definitive agreement does not materialise soon, markets could experience “wild” swings as early as the following week [1].

Iran and Oman have reportedly discussed joint administration of the strait, a proposal that U.S. officials have dismissed as unacceptable, with Trump threatening “to blow them up” if Oman does not comply with U.S. expectations [1]. Energy analyst Patrick De Haan doubted any arrangement granting a single nation control would survive high‑level negotiations, noting that both the United States and regional countries depend on a free strait for their economies [1].