Bitcoin near cycle bottom but weak demand fuels bearish doubts

Bitcoin has fallen below $95,000, marking a 24% drop from its $126,000 peak and prompting analysts to question whether the cryptocurrency is approaching the bottom of its four‑year halving cycle or facing a prolonged bearish phase due to weak demand [2].

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s price sits around $60,000, roughly 50% below its all‑time high, with charts pointing to a possible cycle low in the $40,000 range by late 2026 [1].
• Recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs hit the second‑highest daily level on record, indicating reduced institutional inflows [2].
• Technical indicators show moving averages now acting as resistance, and the 300‑week EMA sits near $57,100, a level often tested before a true bottom [2][3].
• On‑chain data and lack of new buyers suggest limited short‑term support, while the “halving day‑900” model predicts another 125‑day window before a historic bottom could emerge [1].

Cycle timing versus current market weakness

Analyst Jesse Olson scales all four Bitcoin cycles since 2012 to the 2024 halving, noting that each prior cycle bottomed near day 900 after the halving event. The current cycle is at day 775, leaving about 125 days—roughly four months—until the historical bottom window opens, which Olson marks in the $40,000s [1]. A complementary spiral chart shows the 2026‑2027 markers falling inside the same arc that has framed every previous low, reinforcing the “this time is not different” narrative despite recent institutional narratives [1].

At the same time, Bitcoin’s price action has been hampered by record‑level outflows from exchange‑traded products. Blockmanity reports that Thursday’s ETF outflows were the second‑highest ever, and the market has seen two weeks of net withdrawals from these products, eroding demand and keeping the price below $95,000 [2]. The lack of marginal buyers, combined with the 21‑week, short‑term holder cost basis, and 200‑day moving averages now sitting above price as resistance, suggests recent holders are underwater and may sell if prices dip further [1].

Technical signals and broader market context

Technical analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s 300‑week exponential moving average (EMA) sits near $57,100, a level historically breached before a true bottom in past bear markets. Some analysts argue a test of $50,000 could be forthcoming if the downtrend continues [2]. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Gap—a measure of U.S. versus global exchange pricing—has turned modestly positive after weeks of negative readings, hinting at a slight return of U.S. demand but remaining far from a decisive reversal [2].

The broader macro environment adds pressure. Uncertainty over Federal Reserve rate cuts has dampened risk appetite, and geopolitical and domestic political events in the EU and U.S. contribute to market turbulence, as noted in a June market overview that links Bitcoin’s recent 8.1% intraday decline to cooling demand for ETFs and broader economic nervousness [3].