XRP price outlook 2024‑2026: hold or sell?

XRP rallied to $1.30 this week, holding above a level that has historically preceded its biggest post‑halving gains, while a $1.80 ceiling looms as the next technical barrier.

Why the price moved now

The token’s bounce follows the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, a pattern the source notes has historically preceded XRP’s strongest rallies by 12‑18 months [1]. With the next halving scheduled for April 2028, analysts project the most credible upside window to lie in the 2029‑2030 cycle. At the same time, Ripple’s escrow of roughly 33 billion XRP continues a monthly release schedule that can add selling pressure, a risk that remains despite recent regulatory clarity [1].

Long‑term fundamentals

Regulatory risk eased after a 2023 court ruling that retail XRP sales are not securities, and the SEC dropped its appeal in August 2025, embedding clearer legal footing into the token’s outlook [1]. Yet the token’s demand side faces headwinds: Ripple’s own stablecoin RLUSD reached a $1.5 billion market cap in 2026, and the company now promotes stablecoin settlement over XRP‑based liquidity, potentially reducing the need for the token itself [1][2]. On the institutional front, the XRP Ledger now hosts about $1 billion in tokenized real‑world assets—up from $116 million a year earlier—indicating some capital inflow, but the broader DeFi ecosystem remains tiny at $49 million TVL, and XRP cannot be staked to earn yield [2].

Holding horizon

Historical cycles suggest that investors who held XRP for four to five years captured the largest gains, aligning with the post‑halving lag and the next halving in 2028 [1]. Short‑term traders face volatile swings—regulatory headlines can move the price 15% in minutes—while long‑term holders must endure drawdowns that have exceeded 60% in past cycles [1].

What to watch

• Price thresholds: $1.30 support and $1.80 resistance as immediate technical markers.
• Supply events: Monthly escrow releases from the 33 bn token pool; any acceleration could pressure price.
• Regulatory milestones: SEC’s next filing or decision after the August 2025 appeal drop, and any new rulings on XRP’s securities status.

The interplay of halving‑linked cycles, escrow supply dynamics, and Ripple’s shifting focus between XRP and RLUSD will determine whether the token can sustain a multi‑year rally or remain constrained within its current range.