Beshear Says Texas Senate Race In Play After Paxton Win

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear asserted that the Texas Senate race is competitive for Democrats following Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton’s victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff [2]. The Cook Political Report subsequently shifted the race’s rating from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" immediately after Paxton's win was called [1].

Key takeaways

• The Cook Political Report moved the Texas Senate race rating to "Lean Republican" after Paxton defeated Cornyn [1].
• Gov. Andy Beshear argued that Paxton’s impeachment history makes the state winnable for Democrats [2].
• The race is the second most expensive in the country, with total spending exceeding $108 million [1].
• A mid-April poll showed Democratic nominee James Talarico leading Republican candidates, though nearly 20% of voters remained undecided [1].

Beshear targets Paxton’s record and character

Beshear stated on NBC News’ "Meet the Press" that Democrats have never faced a candidate like Paxton, whom he described as "corrupt" and lacking the character to serve [2]. Paxton was impeached by the GOP-controlled Texas House in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges, though he was acquitted by the state Senate and denied any wrongdoing, characterizing the allegations as politically motivated [2]. Beshear also referenced Paxton's personal life, noting that Paxton's wife, a state senator, filed for divorce on "biblical grounds" last year [2]. Paxton wrote on social media that he and his wife decided to "start a new chapter" following "countless political attacks" [2]. Beshear contrasted Paxton with Democratic nominee James Talarico, claiming Talarico focuses on helping families and lowering prices while Paxton would be a "rubber stamp" for the president [2].

Shifts in polling and campaign spending

The primary results have altered the political landscape of the general election matchup. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted in mid-April found Talarico, identified as a state representative in that report, leading both Republican candidates by similar margins, though nearly one in five voters remained undecided [1]. Financial data indicates the contest is already the second most expensive race in the country this year, trailing only the California governor's election, with total spending exceeding $108 million [1]. Republicans have accounted for nearly $75 million of that spending, while Talarico has reportedly built a significant campaign fund without spending heavily during the primary phase [1]. Former Vice President Mike Pence expressed confidence that the Republican Party would retain control of the Senate, stating he could "never vote for the Democrat nominee" [2].

Why it matters

This race represents a significant opportunity for Democrats in a state where no Democrat has won a statewide office since 1994 [1]. While Republicans have controlled state government and drawn favorable congressional maps, lower turnout in the GOP primary runoff compared to previous cycles has raised questions about Republican enthusiasm [1]. Beshear’s comments reflect a broader Democratic strategy to capitalize on Paxton's controversial history, though the state remains solidly red with Republicans holding the majority of power in Austin [1].