XRP price slides below $1.20 as market sell‑off and escrow unlock hit

XRP slipped to $1.12 on June 11, breaking the $1.20 barrier for the first time in over a year and marking a >10% weekly decline as broader crypto markets react to Middle‑East tensions and a fresh escrow unlock.

Market pressure and on‑chain supply

The drop mirrors a market‑wide sell‑off triggered by renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz in late May, which pushed Bitcoin to a low of about $61,000 before a modest rebound [1]. Futures markets now price a 68.8% chance of zero Fed rate cuts this year, keeping risk assets under pressure. Crypto funds felt the strain too: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a record 13‑day outflow draining $4.4 bn, and total crypto products shed $1.67 bn in a single week [1].

On the supply side, Ripple’s monthly escrow unlock on June 1 released another 1 bn XRP, with a few hundred million typically entering circulation [1]. On‑chain data show long‑term holders selling on each price bounce, reinforcing the $1.25 barrier that has capped recent recoveries [1]. Together, external risk and fresh token supply have pushed XRP below its 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day moving averages, with the next technical hurdle at $1.00 [1].

Regulated products and lingering regulatory risk

Despite the price pressure, XRP’s regulatory backdrop has improved. The SEC lawsuit settled in August 2025 and a joint SEC‑CFTC classification as a digital commodity in March 2026 removed a major legal overhang [1]. Five U.S. spot XRP ETFs now manage close to $1 bn in assets; after a brief outflow streak in early June, they recorded a modest $7.44 mn inflow on June 9, outperforming Bitcoin funds [1]. CME Group and Nasdaq also launched a futures product that includes XRP at a 5.80% weight, adding another institutional conduit [1].

The remaining risk centers on the CLARITY Act, which would cement XRP’s commodity status in federal law. The bill entered the Senate calendar on June 1 but lacks a floor vote, and analysts estimate less than a 50% chance of passage before the August recess [1]. A scheduled vote could move the price sharply, while continued delay may dampen institutional demand.

What to watch

• $1.00 price level – a close below this would signal deeper weakness; a quick bounce could indicate selling pressure easing.
• July 1 escrow unlock – the proportion re‑locked versus released will affect circulating supply in a weak market.
• CLARITY Act floor date – any Senate scheduling or vote outcome will likely drive short‑term price action.

XRP’s price now reflects a confluence of macro risk, fresh token supply, and a still‑uncertain regulatory timeline. The next few weeks will reveal whether institutional inflows can offset the downside pressure or if the token will breach the critical $1.00 support.