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On-chain data shows Ethereum whales are offloading assets, mirroring patterns from the 2022 bear market and raising concerns about a potential price drop.
Recent on-chain data indicates that Ethereum (ETH) whales are exhibiting distribution patterns similar to those observed during the 2022 bear market, casting doubt on the sustainability of current price rebounds [1]. While retail accumulation has reached near-record levels, large-scale investors appear to be offloading their holdings into this demand, creating a divergence that analysts warn could lead to further price instability [4].
Key takeaways
The current market environment is characterized by a growing divide between retail and institutional-scale investors. While retail addresses have surged in late 2025 and early 2026, larger players are utilizing this period to distribute their holdings [4]. This dynamic is reflected in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which has remained near 1 for an extended period, suggesting that investors are largely breaking even and that new capital is limited [4]. Analysts note that when growing retail demand fails to drive prices higher, it often indicates significant selling pressure from whales absorbing that liquidity [4].
This behavior mirrors the "take-and-release" patterns seen in previous market downturns. For instance, data from June 2022 showed whales increasing their supply off-exchanges, only to sell off their positions shortly after, leading to a sharp price breakdown [1]. Current readings of the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator suggest that while unrealized profits have declined, they remain above the extreme lows seen in 2018 and 2022, leaving potential room for further downside [4].
The price of Ethereum remains at a precarious juncture, with the $1,600 level serving as a vital boundary for the current trend [1]. If the daily close falls below this mark, the current recovery is considered invalid, potentially opening the door for a decline toward Fibonacci support levels at $1,365, $1,256, and $1,147 [1]. In a more severe breakdown, some projections suggest a drop to $992, a price point not seen since June 2022 [1]. Conversely, a bullish scenario would require a clear breakout above $1,717 to challenge the previous peak of $2,424 [1].
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Analysts identify $1,700 as a former support level that has transitioned into a resistance zone, meaning the price must reclaim this level to potentially signal a shift in the current bearish trend.
Some observers note that recent whale supply patterns mirror a 'churn-and-drop' sequence observed in late May, which preceded a significant price decline.
June is historically the second-worst performing month for Ethereum, having closed in the green only three times in the last decade.
The convergence of whale distribution, the exit of long-term holders, and a declining Smart Money Index suggests that recent price bounces may be relief rallies rather than a true trend reversal [1]. While some institutional rebalancing, such as that from BlackRock, suggests that certain entities see value at current levels, the broader on-chain data points to a fragile market [3]. As long as large-scale holders continue to offload assets into retail demand, the risk of a deeper correction remains a central concern for the Ethereum ecosystem [4].
AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 4 outlets · Jun 12, 2026 · How we report