Commerce Media Faces Budget Problem

Retail media is booming, with spend climbing and new networks launching, but many marketers are questioning how to measure its true impact [1]. The industry lacks a consistent and credible way to prove the performance of these campaigns, making budget decisions challenging [1]. A key issue is the reliance on attribution models that credit conversions to ad exposure, which can lead to inflated performance metrics and an incomplete picture of a network's contribution to business outcomes [1].

Key takeaways

• Retail media measurement is a trust problem, with advertisers struggling to understand what drives growth [1].
• Incrementality is emerging as a way to measure the true causal impact of advertising, focusing on the difference between what happened with a campaign and what would have happened without it [1].
• Ghost ads are being used to measure incrementality, preserving auction dynamics while creating a valid control group [1].
• The lack of standardization in measurement is holding back retail media's growth, with advertisers seeking more holistic approaches [2].
• Real-time data is not always leading to better marketing decisions, with delays between insight and action creating friction [2].

The Challenge of Measuring Retail Media

The retail media industry is facing a scale problem, with each network bringing its own rules for defining performance, including different attribution models and interpretations of return on ad spend [1]. This creates a fragmented system where performance is difficult to evaluate consistently, making it hard for advertisers to compare results across networks [1]. As a result, advertisers are navigating fragmented reporting systems, where the numbers look strong on paper, but budget decisions are made on shaky ground [1].

The Potential of Incrementality

Incrementality offers a way to measure the true causal impact of advertising, focusing on the difference between what happened with a campaign and what would have happened without it [1]. This approach allows brands to assess platform-level performance, optimize spend with greater confidence, and more accurately test new products and promotions [1]. Ghost ads are being used to measure incrementality, preserving auction dynamics while creating a valid control group [1]. For example, DoorDash has seen a 92% reduction in experimentation dilution and a 35% improvement in ROAS confidence intervals after implementing ghost ads in its lift studies [1].

Why it Matters

The implications of incrementality extend beyond individual campaigns, with the potential to shape how platforms evolve, how campaigns are optimized, and how value is defined across retail media [1]. As advertisers gain access to more reliable measures of impact, they can allocate spend with greater precision, directing investment toward platforms and strategies that drive true incremental growth [1]. This creates a healthier market dynamic, where performance is defined by actual outcomes and measurement reinforces, rather than obscures, that reality [1]. According to Claire Wyatt, general manager of business development at The Trade Desk, the ability to justify investment and prove performance is essential for retail media's growth [2].