Vietnam banks unveil 2026 profit targets, widening gap between state

Vietnam’s listed commercial banks released 2026 business plans on May 8, showing Vietcombank targeting pre‑tax profit above VND 50 trillion—a rise of more than 10% year‑on‑year—while VPBank projects VND 41.3 trillion, up 35% from 2025 [1][2].

State banks keep the lead

The “Big 4” state‑owned banks—Vietcombank, BIDV, Agribank and VietinBank—continue to dominate on both asset size and profitability. Vietcombank’s VND 50 trn goal would make it the first Vietnamese lender to breach that threshold, driven by its leading asset quality and restructuring gains. BIDV aims for VND 41.6 trn profit (+10%) while expanding credit growth to 15‑16% and keeping non‑performing loans under 1.5% [1][2]. Agribank targets VND 32.5 trn (+4%). VietinBank, though silent on profit, plans total asset growth of 5‑10% and maintains NPLs below 1.8% [1][2].

Private “big‑three” accelerate

Among large private banks, VPBank’s ambitious VND 41.323 trn profit target (+35%) and projected total assets of VND 1.63 quadrillion place it directly against Agribank’s performance. MB seeks VND 39.4 trn (+15%) profit, while Techcombank’s optimistic scenario envisions VND 37.5 trn (+15%) profit, with a cautious case still at VND 35 trn (+8%). These figures suggest the private sector is narrowing the gap with state banks, though smaller private lenders still aim for sub‑VND 30 trn profits [1][2].

Mid‑tier banks lag behind

HDBank sits in the middle with a VND 30 trn profit goal (+40%) and expects assets above VND 1.2 quadrillion, a 28% rise. Smaller players such as ACB, SHB, LPBank, VIB, TPBank and Sacombank target profits ranging from VND 6.9 trn to VND 14.9 trn, reflecting a broader dispersion in performance expectations across the sector [1][2].

What to watch

• Upcoming release of Q1 2026 earnings for the “Big 4” and large private banks (expected in August) to gauge whether targets are realistic.
• The State Bank of Vietnam’s credit‑growth guidance, especially any adjustments to NPL caps that could affect banks’ lending ambitions.
• Any policy shift on deposit rates that might impact the private banks’ ability to fund rapid asset expansion.

The disclosed targets underline a deepening stratification: state banks retain scale advantages, while the largest private lenders are poised to challenge that dominance if growth assumptions hold, leaving the performance of mid‑tier banks as the key uncertainty.