OpenAI losses hit $38.5 billion as IPO looms, analysts warn bubble

OpenAI’s audited 2025 results show a $38.5 billion loss on $13.1 billion of revenue, a jump from a $5 billion loss in 2024, intensifying concerns that the company’s upcoming IPO could be the centerpiece of an AI‑sector bubble【2】.

Financial shockwave and IPO timing

The loss figure, disclosed by independent researcher Ed Zitron, dwarfs typical tech‑sector deficits and exceeds prior expectations for a company of OpenAI’s size. By contrast, most public tech firms that have gone public historically report far smaller loss‑to‑revenue ratios; Columbia Business School professor Shivaram Rajgopal notes that OpenAI’s costs ran at roughly 260 % of revenue, a level “historically much higher than that of other tech leaders when they went public”【2】.

OpenAI has not filed an IPO prospectus yet, but the company is reportedly contemplating a listing, while Anthropic has already filed a confidential SEC registration that could lead to an IPO before year‑end【1】. Both firms’ private‑market valuations—$852 billion for OpenAI and $965 billion for Anthropic—are based on venture‑capital rounds rather than public‑market metrics, underscoring the speculative nature of the upcoming offerings【1】.

Market reaction and broader AI concerns

The staggering loss has prompted a chorus of caution from investors. Former Fidelity fund manager George Noble called the situation a “cautionary tale” for the AI trade, and Porter & Company analyst Ross Hendricks labeled OpenAI a “dumpster fire” on social media【2】. The criticism extends to OpenAI’s pricing model: the firm reportedly sells a dollar of compute for $0.30 and is considering price cuts to retain market share against rivals such as Anthropic【2】.

These financial strains echo earlier IPO bubbles, notably the dot‑com era where three‑quarters of internet IPOs were unprofitable and half later went bankrupt【1】. The parallel suggests that the current hype around AI may be inflating valuations beyond sustainable business fundamentals.

Competitive landscape

Anthropic’s recent $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation places it slightly ahead of OpenAI’s private value, despite both companies lacking a profitable quarter【1】. Their rivalry intensifies as each pursues per‑token pricing structures that shift cost burdens onto corporate customers, a shift that has already prompted pushback from firms like Uber, which exhausted its 2026 budget for Anthropic’s Claude platform by mid‑March【1】.

What to watch

• OpenAI IPO filing deadline – Monitor SEC filings for a formal registration, expected before year‑end.
• Anthropic IPO timeline – Track Anthropic’s confidential filing progress and any announced pricing.
• Pricing strategy shifts – Watch for announced price cuts or new per‑token rates that could affect corporate spend on AI compute.

The disclosed losses raise a stark question: can OpenAI and its peers generate sustainable cash flows before the market tests them with public listings, or will the AI IPO wave mirror past bubbles that burst under financial reality?