Strive Shares Rise as CEO Declares Bitcoin Bear Market Over

Strive (NASDAQ:ASST) shares rose 5% to $19.09 on Monday following CEO Matt Cole’s declaration that the Bitcoin bear market has concluded [3]. The move, which triggered a broader rally in crypto-linked equities, reflects investor sensitivity to executive sentiment as firms with significant Bitcoin treasuries attempt to recover from year-to-date losses [1, 3].

The "Double Breakout" Thesis

Cole’s bullish outlook centers on a "double breakout" pattern, where Bitcoin has cleared resistance levels against both the U.S. dollar and gold in the same week [1, 3]. Bitcoin climbed roughly 21% between Wednesday and Friday of last week, briefly surpassing $79,000, a move partially attributed to Treasury bond buybacks [2]. While Bitcoin remains down 11.6% year-to-date, the recent surge has provided a reprieve for treasury-focused firms [3]. Strive currently holds 20,246 BTC at an average cost of $94,345, placing the position at an unrealized loss of approximately $350 million [2, 3].

Treasury Vehicles vs. Miners

The market reaction highlighted a growing divergence between firms holding Bitcoin as a treasury asset and traditional mining companies. While Strive and Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) gained 3% to 5% on Monday, the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI) fell 2% [3]. Strategy, which maintains a treasury of 840,447 BTC, recently raised $2 billion through equity sales to bolster its cash reserves, allowing the firm to respond to market dislocations without liquidating its Bitcoin holdings [3]. Conversely, miners remain under pressure as their profitability is tied to hashrate economics and power costs, which compress when Bitcoin price momentum lags [3].

Ethereum and Insider Activity

The rally extended to companies with Ethereum exposure, with Bitmine Immersion Technologies (NYSE:BMNR) and SharpLink (NASDAQ:SBET) rising 3% and 2%, respectively [3]. Bitmine is currently the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, with over 3.73 million ETH on its balance sheet [3]. Meanwhile, Strive management signaled internal confidence prior to the recent price leg, as director Pierre Rochard disclosed a purchase of 15,900 shares at a weighted average of $12.54 [3].

What to watch

• Bitcoin Price Floor: Monitor whether Bitcoin sustains trading above $78,000, the level identified by Cole as the anchor for his breakout thesis [3].
• Corporate Treasury Flows: Observe further equity issuance or cash reserve adjustments from Strategy, which currently holds $1.59 billion in its "USD Cash" account [3].
• Earnings and Filings: Watch for Strive’s next scheduled earnings release and any additional Form 4 insider filings that may indicate management’s ongoing sentiment [3].

Whether this rally represents a durable trend change or a temporary reaction to executive commentary remains the central question for the sector. With Bitcoin still trading below its year-to-date highs, the market is looking for sustained volume and price stability to confirm that the treasury-focused firms have successfully navigated the recent downturn [3].